The URL can be used to link to this page

Untitled COMPREHENSIVE PLAN SALINA, KANSAS CERTIFIED CORY Approved _ 7 /I Resolution No. 9; / Salina City Planning Comm. Chairman Secretary AI jklA4(4.. •�..F;. C I T Y O f-Linn, • Prepared bv: • Trida, Pettigrew, Allen dr Payne Bucher Willis Ratliff RESOLUTION NUMBER 92-1 A RESOLUTION ADOPTING A COMPREHENSIVE PLAN TO GUIDE THE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE CITY OF SALINA AND SURROUNDING UNINCORPORATED AREA. WHEREAS, pursuant to K.S.A. 12-747, the Salina City Planning Commission is authorized to formulate a comprehensive plan for the city and the unincorporated area lying outside the city which forms the total community; and WHEREAS, the purpose of the comprehensive plan is to serve as the basis or guide for public action to insure coordinated and harmonious development or redevelopment which will best promote the health, safety, and general welfare as well as further wise and efficient expenditure of public funds; and WHEREAS, surveys and studies have been made of past and present conditions and future trends relating to population, land use, building characteristics, public facilities , transportation, economic conditions and environmental resources; and WHEREAS, a public hearing was held to receive comments from interested citizens , advance notice of which was published in the official city newspaper at least twenty (20) days prior to said hearing; • NOW THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED by the Planning Commission of the City of Salina, Kansas: 1. That the report entitled Comprehensive Plan - Salina, Kansas, consisting of the following documents which are incorporated herein by reference: Goals , Objectives and Policies Long-Range Plan Land-Use Plan Transportation Plan Community Facilities Plan Utilities Plan Growth and Development Strategy (including supporting maps, figures and tables) Implementation Review and Amendment Process is hereby approved as the comprehensive plan for the City of Salina and surrounding unincorporated area. • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Salina City Commission Carol Beggs, Mayor Peter Brungardt, Vice-Mayor John Divine Steve Ryan Joe Warner Planning Commission Kristin Seaton, Chair Don Morris, Vice-Chair Dale Anderson Elizabeth Duckers Eric Hardman Bob Haworth Ray Kline Harold Larson • Larry McCoach City Administration Dennis Kissinger, City Manager Mike Morgan, Assistant City Manager Planning and Development Department Roy Dudark, Director Dean Andrew, Assistant City Planner Marcia Stock, Secretary Consultants Trkla, Pettigrew, Allen & Payne, Inc. 123 West Madison Street, Chicago, Illinois 60602 (312) 782-8893 Bucher Willis Ratliff, Kansas City, Kansas, Transportation Subconsultant 0 Special thanks is due, as well, to many other City staff members, governmental jurisdictions, other organizations, and interested citizens who spent time assisting with various facets of this project. 0 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 BACKGROUND TO THE PLANNING STUDY 1 THE COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING PROGRAM 2 ORGANIZATION OF THE PLAN REPORT 3 PART I: BACKGROUND STUDIES 5 Land-use and Development 5 Community Facilities 50 Transportation 67 PART II: GOALS AND OBJECTIVES 82 • PART III: LONG-RANGE PLAN 101 Planning Framework 102 Land-Use Plan 105 Transportation Plan 123 Community Facilities Plan 145 Utilities Plan 155 Community Design 158 Growth and Development 170 PART IV: IMPLEMENTATION 179 i • • LIST OF FIGURES 1. Existing Land Use 7 2. Environmental Factors 43 3. Flood Hazards 44 4. Existing Community Facilities 51 5. Arterial Lanes 69 6. Speed Limits 70 7. Average Daily Traffic 72 8. Accident Locations 74 • 9. Circulation Assessment 78 10. Fixed and Infill Sites 106 11. Land Use Plan 107 12. Projected Future Year Daily Traffic 125 13. Future Year Functional Street Classification 127 13a. Street Cross-Sections 130 13b. Street Cross-Sections 131 14. Future Street Construction Projects 133 15. Community Facilities Plan 146 16. Utility Plan 156 17. Community Design Plan 159 18. Salina Service Areas 172 ii 0 LIST OF TABLES 1. Existing Land Use 8 2. Development Trends 13 3. Pending Projects and Proposals 16 4. Population Trends 1970-1990 18 5. Growth Comparisons 19 6. Population Forecast - 2010 21 * 7. Household Trends * 8. Household Forecasts * 9. Salina Age Group Distribution 111 * 10. Salina Racial Distribution * 11. Per Capita and Average Household Income Levels 1970-1990 * 12. Household Income Distribution 1970-1990 * 13. Labor Force and Employment Trends 1980-1990 * 14. Employment by Industry in Salina 1970-1980 * 15. Employment by Occupation in Salina 1970-1990 * 16. At Place of Work Employment Trends 1970-1990 * 17. At Place of Work Employment: Percent Distribution in Saline County 1970-1990 * 18. Economic Growth Characteristics 1982-1987 * 19. Retail Sale Trends 1983-1989 * 20. Valuations in Salina and Saline County 1984-1991 21. Residential Permits 1980-1990 26 Om iii 0 LIST OF TABLES (CONT.) 22. Commercial and Industrial Space Permitted in Salina and Planning Area 1980-1990 27-28 23. Total Commercial and Industrial Space Permitted in Salina and Planning Area 1980-1990 29 24. Salina Housing Unit Demand 1980-2010 32 25. Salina Retail Space Demand 1980-2010 34 26. Salina Office Space Demand 1990-2010 36 27. Salina Industrial Space Demand 1990-2010 37 28. Salina Hotel Demand 1990-2010 40 * 29. Airport Noise Interpolation 0 * 30. Land Use Guidelines: Land Use Noise Sensitivity Interpolation 31. Average Daily Traffic Summary 1981 and 1991 73 32. CBD Street Circulation Evaluation 77 33. Intersection Safety Improvements 80 34. Projected Traffic Change 124 35. Street Design Standards 132 36. Cost Estimates - Short Range Projects 142-43 37. Cost Estimates - Long Range Projects 144 * Tables located in Appendix to this Plan Report III iv 0 INTRODUCTION . r 1 l 1i/ .. i / : M:ter < CI T Y • O F soLina . Salina Comprehensive Plan INTRODUCTION This document presents the Comprehensive Plan for the City of Salina, Kansas. The Comprehensive Plan is the City's official policy guide for future growth and development. It includes goals, objectives and policies for the future of the community, long-range recommendations for land-use, transportation and community facilities, and other plan and project components. The Salina Planning program, which was initiated in August of 1991, has consisted of a three-phase planning process focused on the identification of issues and concerns; the evaluation of alternative planning concepts; the preparation of goals and objectives; the refinement of plan recommendations, the solicitation of citizen input, and adoption by the Planning Commission and City Commission. BACKGROUND TO THE PLANNING STUDY The City of Salina is a community of approximately 42,000 persons, located in Saline County, Kansas. The city is positioned within the heartland of central Kansas and serves as a regional center for a number of central Kansas counties. This geographically central location coupled with its superior transportation system is a major factor in the communities prosperity. Salina has experienced moderate growth over the last decade. Although growth has occurred in virtually every sector of the local economy, it has not brought about any significant change in the basic structure of local business and industry. However, even though development is moderately paced, local infrastructure improvements and development which has occurred over the last decade are cause for re-evaluation of the current plan. The last Comprehensive Plan update was completed by the City in 1980, just prior to the release of the 1980 U.S. Census of Population. While the plan has served its purpose over the last decade, changing community conditions have warranted the preparation of a new plan. It is expected the City of Salina will be undertaking major capital improvement projects over the next five to ten years which will have great influence upon the land-use and development patterns of the community. A key element of the new plan is to harness capital improvement and development project potentials in a manner which minimize the expenditure of local financial resources while encouraging development and growth. • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 1 Therefore, in July of 1991, the City of Salina initiated the Salina Comprehensive Plan and Transpor- tation Plan process. This Comprehensive Plan Report documents the outcome of the study and the • future plan for the City of Salina. THE COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING PROGRAM The program for preparing the new Salina Comprehensive Plan entailed a three-phase process. The first phase consisted of analyzing background information regarding existing conditions within the community, workshops, focus group sessions and interviews. The second phase consisted of developing alternative concepts for future development and improvement, preparation of goals and objectives and selection of a preferred concept for future land-use and growth and development. The third phase of the program involved preparation and refinement of the long-range plans for the City. Key steps in the planning process are highlighted below. ■ Study Initiation. The overall study began in August of 1991 upon engaging the consulting team to assist the City in the preparation of its new plan. ■ Focus Group Sessions,Key Person Interviews and Community Workshops.To encourage local participation and input, focus group sessions organized around a separate area of"focus" relating to a planning topic were held. The focus group subjects included: 1) growth and development; 2)public facilities and services; 3) transportation; and 4) community character.Approximately 30 individuals with special insight or knowledge of the community were interviewed to obtain the view points of various local agencies, community groups and residents. Community workshops were also held to discuss issues and concerns with a broader cross-section of the community. • • Background Studies. A series of background studies was prepared by the consultant dealing with various aspects of the community, including land-use, development trends,demographic and market analyses,building conditions,environmental features, transportation, community design, community facilities and public utilities. These were discussed in detail with the City Planning Commission and the public in general. • Goals and Objectives. Based upon the conclusions of all previous work activity, Planning Goals and Objectives were developed dealing with various components of the community. ■ Concept Alternatives. Based on the conclusions reached on the background studies concerning overall issues and opportunities within the City, the consulting team prepared three alternative concepts for future community development and improve- ment. The concepts represented broad alternative approaches to land-use and community facilities and evaluated the implications of each alternative approach. Through discussion and comparison by the Planning Commission, local officials, and the public, a preferred concept was selected which became the basis for preparation of the new plan. • Plan and Program Preparation. Based on preliminary consensus reached on a preferred concept, a draft plan was prepared by the consulting team and reviewed by i Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 2 the City. The plan includes recommendations for specific land-use areas within the • City as well as a more detailed study of key geographic areas. • Plan Refinement.Based on detailed review by the Planning Commission,local officials and the public in general, the plan was refined. • Final Plan Preparation. The plan was then prepared in final form consisting of this document and a summary "poster" version of the plan and its policies. ORGANIZATION OF THE PLAN REPORT The Comprehensive Plan report summarizes the results of the entire planning process, and presents recommendations for key aspects of the Salina community. The report is divided into five parts: • Part I:Background Studies which summarizes the inventories and analyses undertaken in the initial phase of the planning program. It includes a review of existing condi- tions, future needs and potentials, and key issues and concerns to be addressed as part of the new plan. It includes sections on land-use and development, transportation and community facilities. • Part II: Goals and Objectives and Policies presents the overall community needs and aspirations to be addressed under the plan. • Part III: Long-Range Plan presents recommendations for future improvement, growth, development and preservation within the community. The Long-Range Plan • has seven sections: a) Planning Framework; b)the Land-Use Plan; c)the Transporta- tion Plan; d) the Community Facilities Plan; e) Utilities Plan; f) Community Design; and g) Growth and Development. • Part IV: Implementation which sets forth specific actions required to implement the Plan, including follow-up studies and projects, development controls update, capital improvements program, and review and amendment. • Appendix includes documentation of a number of components of the planning program. This information has been provided under separate cover to reduce the overall length of the planning document. It includes various tables and figures used in the background studies,as well as the Alternative Concepts report developed during the second phase of the planning program. BENEFITS OF THE PLANNING PROGRAM The Comprehensive Planning Program should result in a number of benefits for the Salina Communi- ty. A range of current data and material on local conditions has been assembled and recorded. The process has encouraged local residents to consider the future of their community more directly and actively discuss future options and alternatives. It has resulted in a plan for future growth and development which represents a consensus of local views and opinions. This plan is comprehensive in its geographic coverage of both developed and undeveloped portions of the community. • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 3 The new Comprehensive plan promotes a balanced and orderly future development pattern which should enhance the local living environment and Salina's special image and character. It establishes III an overall framework for coordinating both public and private improvements and development. It provides guidelines by which the Planning Commission and City Council can review and evaluate individual development proposals. It provides a guide for public investments that can help ensure that local public dollars are spent wisely for community facilities and services. Finally, the new Comprehensive Plan is further evidence of the City's commitment to planning for its future on a continuing basis. • 0 Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 4 • PART I: Background Studies • r C I T V O F • SALIflA Salina Comprehensive Plan 0 PART I: BACKGROUND STUDIES INTRODUCTION Part I: Background Studies summarize the inventories and analyses undertaken in the initial phases for the Salina Comprehensive Planning Program. Part I is based on data collected and surveys conducted by the City of Salina, other agencies and organizations within the area, and the consulting team. In particular, the efforts of the Department of Planning and Development staff must be emphasized. Part I also reflects the issues and concerns discussed at focus group sessions and key persons interviews held in the fall of 1991. Part I includes three primary sections: • Land-Use and Development. This section summarizes an analysis of land-use and development within the Salina community. It includes chapters on several aspects of land-use which will influence or affect the new Comprehensive Plan: 1)existing land- use; 2) recent development trends; 3)pending projects and proposals; 4)demographic and market overview analysis; 5) building conditions; 6) environmental features; 7) historic resources; and 8) community design. • • Community Facilities. This section describes existing conditions and future needs for the following community facilities: 1) parks and recreation; 2) public schools; 3) fire department; 4)the library; 5)police department; 6)administrative services; 7)cultural facilities; and 8) public utilities. • Transportation. This section provides an overview of transportation facilities within Salina, with emphasis on the street system. It includes a review of the present function of streets within the community, an identification of problem locations within the existing street system, a review of transportation plans and projects, and a listing of issues and concerns to be addressed as part of the Comprehensive Plan. Part I is supplemented by a series of maps highlighting parts of the City. These maps were used in various meetings and work sessions during the course of the Planning study. While they are referenced in the report, not all maps have been reproduced for inclusion in the report. LAND-USE AND DEVELOPMENT EXISTING LAND-USE Growth and development potentials and constraints within the City of Salina are largely determined by the pattern of existing development within the community. The arrangement of residential, commercial, industrial, institutional, and community facilities land-uses, and the manner in which • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 5 these uses are grouped and related, significantly affect the community functions and the overall • quality of life. To determine the types of land-uses in Salina today,a detailed parcel-by-parcel survey was conducted by City Staff in the Summer of 1991. The specific use of each building and parcel at the time of the survey was recorded and mapped. The results of the land-use survey are depicted in Figure I, Existing Land-Use. The recording process utilized in the survey was based upon the Standard Land-Use Coding Manual, a universal system for identifying and coding land-uses. Specific land-uses were recorded in the following categories: - Rural Residential - Single Family - Mobile Home Park - Multiple Family (up to 7 D.U./acre) - Multiple Family (over 7 D.U./acre) - Commercial - Central Business District - Office - Government - Institutional - Light Industrial - Heavy Industrial - Parks and Recreation - Agricultural/Grazing - Open Space - Vacant Land This land-use survey has resulted in an up-to-date representation of how each parcel in the community is now utilized. This not only permits an analysis of land-use conditions and potentials as a part of the Comprehensive Plan and Transportation Plan, but also provides the City with important data to serve a range of other technical and analytical needs. A summary tabulation of existing land-use is presented in Table 1. • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 6 r- -- - -.--- - - - -- - - - - ------.-- - - -- . --.—. N1 �,I _ . j - j 6 t j 411) - 1 I 1111111113. ! 11.11111111 1 INOW u„1:JL : ,:uw,~�� ,E - Yl3niiva�� ;l Eili1 � jilif •• I.; '111- 11.1 .101111 rkiminlik ri 111111' la(51 T mi!l711 Irillitia• ii ID03.7 iill C.^MI ` � ® IIl. � ; I y _ �' ,'''Ali 111= �y"� II= L tLLmt,L mI 'ilu I 4r"' ��t� C..OiO��.s i A ! . 1 Cam! r �. ' 1:_ .• • } �� i I • 1.. .O 4 U- ',,,p S I NM I . "II [ , N.•-zr „ a cc a •i • ,f 1 m 3 ° I c rte..' ii I •. c I I I= .....q..., - «r.rrr,r.r - 5.pl.fre,ararr. - .....r,r - .,......p.. © ■-4fr.a,.•,. - ,..Fe.«Reabnt,,I..:a u anel - w....,...,. - crr.ro.pl...$-- Op.Op sore A .. Canini Buono.Nona - o... t I vac. Figure 1 EXISTING LAND-USE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN I �D City of Salina, Kansas .,.° - .� • TABLE 1 1991 EXISTING LAND-USE City of Extraterritorial Total Salina Areas Planning Area Land-use Classification Acreage Percent Acreage Percent Acreage Percent - Rural Residential 258.8 2.1 27.6 1.4 286.4 2.0 - Single Family Residential 3,398.2 28.2 - - 3398.2 24.1 - Mobile Home Park 115.6 .09 9.8 .5 125.4 .9 - Multiple Family (less than 7 D.U./acre) 98.5 .8 - - 98.5 .7 - Multiple Family (over 7 D.U./acre) 115.5 .9 - - 115.5 .8 - Commercial 490.5 4.1 13.3 .7 503.8 3.6 Central Business District 59.8 .5 - - 59.8 .4 - Office 77.9 .6 - - 77.9 .5 - Government 2,316.0 19.2 - - 2,316 16.5 - Institutional 613.7 5.1 7.2 .4 620.9 4.4 - Light Industrial 377.8 3.1 186.1 9.4 563.9 4 - Heavy Industrial 188.5 1.6 142.9 7.2 331.4 2.4 al - Parks and Recreation 701.8 5.8 125.0 6.3 826.8 5.9 - Agricultural/Grazing 1,502.6 12.4 1,502.6 10.7 - Open Space 150 1.2 206.5 10.4 356.3 2.5 - Vacant Land 1,609.3 13.3 1258.0 63.7 2,867.2 20.4 TOTAL 12,074.5 100.0 1,976.4 100.0 14,050.9 100.0 Source: City of Salina Department of Planning and Development Important aspects of existing land-use patterns are presented in the following pages. Please note that the acreage totals are divided between land currently incorporated within the City and land which lies outside the corporate limits but within the City's unincorporated extraterritorial planning jurisdiction. General Development Patterns There are several key organizational factors which have strong influence upon the overall general development patterns within Salina's planning area. First, the City has incorporated and established itself at the southeastern quadrant formed by the intersection of I-70 and I-135. This is primarily due to floodplain and storm water conditions that have led to the construction of the flood control levee surrounding most of the City. This has been instrumental in creating compact development within the immediate urban fringe. • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 8 A second important feature is that, with the exception of downtown, commercial development has • focused on major gateway corridors to the City having direct access to the surrounding interstate expressway system. These key routes include Ninth Street and Schilling Road; Crawford Street and I-135 and Broadway Boulevard and Ninth Street around its interchange with I-70. The third important feature is that the Salina Municipal Airport, combined with access to the interstate system, has been a significant catalyst for industrial activity within the vicinity of the airport and in the area generally south of Schilling Road. Existing single family residential areas include a range of densities from approximately five dwellings per acre to one dwelling per three acres. These varied density characteristics should be considered in developing the new Comprehensive Plan and Transportation Plan. Residential development in recent years has occurred primarily in the eastern and southern portions of the community. The area outside of the City but within the extraterritorial planning area is primarily agricultural, grazing, and scattered large lot residential development. The extraterritorial area is also characterized by a number of environmental conditions which will influence future development potentials. Single Family Residential Areas Though Salina is a regional center for business, commerce, culture, and industry, it is still primarily a residential community. Single family residential uses account for 24.1 percent of all land develop- ment within the planning area. Mobile home parks account for one percent of the total. Salina offers a wide variety of neighborhoods and housing types which vary in character and appearance. Residential streets in the historic original town area have a character very different from the variety of newer developments within the City. Nearly all residential neighborhoods within Salina contain • essentially sound housing stock, well maintained improvements, and quality living environments. Salina's existing single family neighborhoods occupy essentially eight distinct areas of the community. The first is north of the Union Pacific Railroad. This area is characterized by somewhat older housing stock and smaller dwellings compared to the City in general. The area has also been impacted by industrial and commercial uses,creating some compatibility problems within the area. The historic downtown neighborhood includes the area approximately bounded by Ninth Street, Riverside Drive, Crawford Street, and the flood control levee to the east. The older south central neighborhood extends between Crawford Street and Cloud Street, east of Ninth Street. The newer southern neighborhood extends south of Cloud Street to Schilling Road. The near westside neighborhood includes the residential areas south of State Street and west of 10th Street, although there are some differences between areas north and south of Crawford Street. The far west neighborhood begins at Broadway Boulevard and extends to the City limits, south of Crawford Street. The newest residential areas within the City lie east of Ohio Street. Finally,a small, more secluded residential area lies along Schilling Road between I-135 and the airport. Multiple Family Residential Areas Existing multiple family areas are much more limited in size and are scattered throughout the community. Multiple family land-uses account for 1.5 percent of total land-use within the City. Larger multiple family developments are located along major street corridors such as Crawford Street, Schilling Road, Ninth Street and Ohio Street. Smaller sites are integrated in other use areas, including larger single family and commercial areas. • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 9 • There are several noteworthy concentrations of multiple family dwellings.These areas include Schill- ing Road between I-135 and Centennial Road, the Crawford Street frontage east of Ohio Street, and areas along Ohio Street between Wayne Avenue and Crawford Street. These areas contain various forms of housing, ranging from duplex dwellings to mid-size apartments. Recent additions to the housing stock have been responsive to the City's growing elderly population. The majority of the community's multiple family housing has been in place for a number of years. Commercial Areas Commercial areas, including the central business district, total 3.5 percent of the City's planning area and 5.2 percent of the land area within the City proper. Commercial categories include retail uses, commercial services, repair services, professional and general offices, banks and other financial institutions, etc. Existing commercial areas include neighborhood,community,and regionally-scaled shopping centers. These areas have different roles and functions within the City and are identified below. Downtown Salina represents the predominant shopping area for the community and offers a wide range of retail, commercial and business service uses. The downtown is located within the north central portion of the community and is focused around Santa Fe Avenue and Iron Street. The downtown is nearly 60 acres in area and includes 375 business enterprises, with over 1.5 million square feet of commercial space. The downtown not only functions as the City's largest regional shopping center, but also is host to an array of governmental activities and educational, cultural, and recreational facilities. The downtown currently enjoys an estimated 85 percent occupancy rate. Shopping areas located in the southern portion of the community include Central Mall, Kraft Manor, • Galaxy Center, Midstate Mall,South Santa Fe,Southgate,and Oak Park shopping areas. The southern portion of the City also includes two discount centers: Alco and WalMart. The majority of these shopping areas are along South Ninth Street. Central Mall is the single largest shopping center, with over 500,000 square feet of commercial space, and serves as a regional shopping attraction. The majority of uses within these commercial areas are retail and business and personal service-related. Numerous land development opportunities exist for new commercial development within the area of Central Mall, south along Ninth Street. However, even though these opportunities exist, over two- thirds of the gross floor area within Mid State Mall is vacant. The new Comprehensive Plan should assess market potentials as well as alternative land-use and development patterns for the remaining large parcels in the area of South Ninth Street. Shopping areas within the western area of the City include Sunset Plaza, the south Broadway Boulevard area, Gibson's, K-Mart, and a variety of other business establishments. The south Broadway area includes a one mile strip between Ash Street and Crawford Street. The south Broadway and Crawford Street area contains a broader mix of commercial uses,including automotive, hotel and business supply uses. The"strip"character and older condition of the Broadway Boulevard area sets it apart from other shopping areas within the community. The northern Salina shopping area focuses on Broadway Boulevard between North Street and Ninth Street, and portions of Pacific Street and Ninth Street south of Pacific Street. Some commercial uses have been established north of the flood control levee, but have been limited due to the extent and location of floodplain. Like the western shopping area, this area also includes a broad mix of retail, commercial, service, and related land-uses. The character of the area, however, is strongly impacted • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 10 by the presence and mix of industrial and residential land-uses. Further, the area is characterized by IIIsmall, strip development along the frontage of major corridors. Finally, a concentration of commercial activity is located along Crawford Street generally between Front and Ohio Streets. The largest single shopping center within this area is the Elmore Center. This area is central to the community and focuses on community based shopping goods and services. The Comprehensive Plan should specify the future role of these key shopping areas. While downtown Salina is the strongest retailing location, growth opportunities exist in satellite locations within the community. The distribution of new development and its impact upon existing development areas should be identified. Industrial Areas There are essentially three industrial areas within the City. Each area is somewhat different in terms of scale, location, and role within the community. Industrial land-uses comprise 4.7 percent of the land within the City, and 16.6 percent of the land within the unincorporated planning area. The Lee Industrial Area is the oldest area within the community. It is located in the northern portion of the City and generally follows the Rock Island and Union Pacific Railroad alignments on an east- west axis. This area is the site of grain elevator operations and a range of light and heavy industrial uses. In general, this area consists of older buildings and improvements, and while a number of uses may be viable, the area is lacking in maintenance and appears to have a high vacancy rate. Industrial activities are scattered throughout adjoining residential areas resulting in the development of incompatible land-use relationships. Access to and from this area invariably crosses residential and other use areas, with the exception of the Ohio Street connection to 1-70. The south industrial park area lies outside the City along South Ninth Street, within Salina's planning • area. Interchange improvements at Schilling Road and 1-135 in the last few years have permitted easier access to this area and have provided impetus for growth. This area is occupied by both large and small industrial uses. Significant acreages of vacant land lie within this area. The extent of future growth in this area and policies relating to municipal facilities and services should be explored. The Salina Municipal Airport industrial area is also a somewhat newer and developing area within the City. This industrial area is located along the east side of the airport, west of 1-135. The area is the location of a number of important industrial, institutional,and educational facilities. In recent years, a new industrial park has begun development in the southern portion of the area. The airport industrial area is also the planned location for the Kansas State-Salina Engineering Technology Campus. These improvement plans should be evaluated to determine the desired locations of growth and potential impacts on nearby residential uses. Vacant and Agricultural Lands Vacant and agricultural lands together comprise 31.7 percent of the entire planning area. Of this total, vacant land accounts for 20.4 percent, the majority lying outside the current municipal limits of the City. As a regional center, Salina's opportunities for growth are substantial. However, many of these undeveloped areas are impacted by environmental constraints or facilities needs, all of which should be evaluated in assessing the directions and locations for future growth. A primary focus of the new Comprehensive Plan and Transportation Plan will be the future use of vacant and agricultural lands within and surrounding the community. III Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 11 • Public and Semi-Public Areas Public and semi-public areas include facilities such as parks, open space, governmental offices, schools, churches, libraries,colleges and universities. Salina maintains a number of important public and semi-public areas which greatly enhance its overall image and identity as a community of regional prominence. Public and semi-public uses account for nearly 30 percent of land-use within the overall planning area. Existing facilities and future needs are discussed in the Community Facilities section of this paper. DEVELOPMENT TRENDS An analysis of development trends within the Salina Planning Area was completed for the 10-year 1980 to 1990 period. In general, Salina has received steady but modest growth (City and planning area). Two general observations should be noted. First, most new development occurred in the last half of the 10 year period (1986-1990) following the national recession of the early 1980s. Second, the majority of new development has occurred within the City of Salina, with the notable exception of industrial development. Table 2,Development Trends, presents a quantitative summary of development within the community derived from both City of Salina and Saline County building permit records. The table is organized by type of land-use classification and year of construction. The physical locations of a number of larger development projects for the 11-year period from 1980 through 1990 were also evaluated. Recent trends for key land-use categories are highlighted below. 0 Single-Family Residential Permits for 746 dwelling units were issued for the 10-year period, averaging 74 dwellings per year. Noteworthy is that the annual high total was for the year 1984 (88 DU's). Most new development permits were issued for sites located in the south and southeast portions of the City. Multi-Family Construction Permits totaling 569 duplex and multi-family dwelling units were issued for the 10-year period, averaging 57 dwellings per year. In most years, they numbered between 17 and 49 dwellings. Exceptional years were 1986 (192 permits) and 1990 (88 permits), in which large planned projects were constructed in the City. Similar to single family land-use patterns within the community, new multi-family construction has been focused in the south and southeastern portions of the City. • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 12 TABLE 2 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS, 1980-1990 CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY WITHIN THE SALINA CITY LIMITS AND WITHIN THE EXTRATERRITORIAL PLANNING AREA(1) � 1980 I 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total LAND-USE CLASSI- FICATION(2) Single-Family Residential(DU) 79 65 40 78 85 57 56 53 75 78 80 746 Multi-Family Residential 42 49 20 50 29 27 192 34 17 22 88 570 (1316) Commercial(Sq.Ft.) 14,428 27,218 41,882 80,600 27,840 284,277 493,424 62,012 31,198 164,912 22,200 1,249,991 (Additions)(Sq.Ft.) (8,320) (13,516) (6,288) (31,228) (9,768) (21,125) (4,900) (15,111) (13,450) (8,100) (157,170) (288,996) 24,000 6,200 2,000 19,127 Office(Sq.Ft.) 6,956 30,234 3,264 29,147 21,559 20,496 44,980 7,524 --- 4,400 16,404 184,964 (Additions) (9,600) (11,182) (7,875) (13,427) (4,212) (3,300) (2,114) (3,256) (4,494) (1,500) (1,092) (72,052) 5,000 5,000 (3.300) (3,300) Industrial(Sq.Ft.) 32,680 40,900 15,482 72,400 95,646 21,180 19,455 57,683 --- 35,160 56,800 447,386 (Additions)(Sq.Ft.) (18,200) (9,839) (38,450) (16,088) (13,430) (24,096) (33,096) (33,960) (6,150) (27,870) (11,975) (234,018) 91,936 29,480 5,000 10,000 12,800 8.328 10,800 168,344 (3,000) (27,074) (76.535) (20,616) (1.000) (111,130) (199,318) (438,673) Governmental(Sq.Ft.) --- 10,000 8,190 --- 11,906 --- 480 --- --- 1,200 2,520 34,296 (Additions)(Sq.Ft.) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- (10,319) (10,319) Institutional(Sq.Ft.) 27,600 --- --- 15,700 2,500 14,260 32,150 --- 6,360 16,118 10,058 124,746 (Additions)(Sq.Ft.) (10,197) (13,650) (12,334) (3,600) --- (14,429) --- (28,444) (24,700) (13,770) * (107,387) (228,511) 7,050 7,050 Parks& Recreation (Additions)(Sq.Ft.) 9,600 9,600 1 (I) Figures in text depicted in italics reflect development which has occurred within the City's Extraterritorial Planning Area. (2) Figures in parentheses (000) reflect building additions to existing buildings and structures NOTE: All data is based on building development for construction activity in each year. Source: SalisPartment of Planning and Development. • • Commercial Land-Use Commercial construction accounted for the largest amount of new development for the 10-year period. In the City, 1,538,987 square feet of commercial space was constructed,for a 10-year average of 153,858 square feet per year. Noteworthy are three major new facilities which constitute 61 percent of the total: 1) Central Mall, in 1986 (421,232 square feet); 2) Holiday Inn, West Crawford Street, in 1985 (179,130 square feet); and 3) WalMart at Schilling and Ninth Street (114,557 square feet). Of the total 1.5 million square feet, 288,000 square feet represented additions to existing businesses within the City. Further, only 51,327 square feet of space was developed within the unincorporated portion of the planning area, indicating the overall strength of "in City" locations. During the last five years, most commercial growth has occurred in the southern portion of the City in close proximity to the South Ninth Street Corridor. Office Office development accounts for a total of 263,816 square feet for the 10-year period, for an average of 26,381 square feet per year. The single most significant office project during this period was the Peoples Heritage Offices (24,400 square feet). Noteworthy is that office construction in the last four years fell to an average of 7,082 square feet per year. The vast majority of office construction has occurred within the City. Industrial 0 Industrial development represents the second highest land-use growth classification over the 10-year period. Permits were issued for a total of 1,289,769 square feet, or an annual average of 128,976 square feet. Significant is that additions to existing industrial facilities account for 52 percent of the City total in the 10-year period. During the last five years, 761,016 square feet of the total has been developed. Furthermore, 47 per- cent, or 608,365 square feet, has been located within the unincorporated planning area. Virtually all industrial development has occurred in the southern portion of the community in either the Airport or South Industrial areas. Public/Semi-Public Construction of two new facilities (Salina Community Theatre and Saline County Engineering Department)occurred during the 10-year period, and one park and recreation facility was completed. In comparison, a number of institutional improvements were made, totaling 1,360,307 square feet. In 1990, a major addition to Ashbury Hospital accounted for 107,387 square feet in the 10-year total. PENDING PROJECTS AND PROPOSALS Even though the Existing Land-use Map portrays significant vacant lands within the community, a variety of parcels are already committed or are under consideration for new development. Salina Comprehensive Plan P Page 14 Table 3, Pending Projects and Proposals, summarizes existing plans, projects and proposals in four • categories: 1) approved projects and plans under development; 2) approved plats and plans - no development; 3) pending projects; and 4) development plans approved. Plats and Plans Approved - Under Development This category includes all projects which have received final subdivision approval and final plan approval and which are currently under development. The category includes six separate development projects. Four of the projects are residential in nature, one is industrial, and one is a university- related project. If all residential projects complete construction as approved, a total of 210 new dwelling units will be added to the City. In addition, 13 lots exist at the Salina Municipal Airport Industrial Center, representing 158 acres of land. Proposed improvements for the Kansas State University-Salina campus encompass 112 acres and include a range of utility, facility, and access and circulation improvements. These projects are characterized as "likely" to be completed, since development for each project is underway at this time. Plats and Plans Approved - No Development This category includes all final plats of subdivision and final plans authorized to proceed, but on which construction has not yet begun. The category includes five residential and one commercial development. If all projects were constructed as proposed under current approved plans, they would yield a total of 246 additional dwelling units (including 96 multi-family dwellings) on 179.5 acres, and 79 acres of new commercial development totaling approximately 859,000 square feet (assuming an average floor area ratio of .25). It should be pointed out that while development approvals have been granted for these projects, the timing and probability of initiation and completion of these projects are not known. Pending Projects Pending projects include preliminary approved plats and plans which still require final plan approval by the City and obligations and commitments from the developer. Although these projects could proceed, they are not as certain as projects in the classifications above. Pending projects include two preliminary residential subdivisions and one preliminary industrial subdivision. These subdivisions, if fully developed under current plans, would result in the addition of 63 single family dwellings,230 multiple family dwellings,and 784,080 square feet of industrial space(assuming an average floor area ratio of .40). S Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 15 TABLE 3: PENDING PROJECTS AND PROPOSALS Plats/Plats Approved-Under Development Comments 1.Country Club Estates No.4 Single family 46 building lots 20 acres • 44 vacant 2.Country Oak Estates Single family manufactured homes 93 building lots 37.7 acres 86 vacant 3.Mariposa Phase I Single family 49 building lots 33 acres 42 vacant 4.Eastgate Addition Single/multi family 19.1 acres 47 lots 39 buildable lots 38 vacant 5.KSU-Salina Campus improvements 112 acres 6.Airport Industrial Center Industrial park 158 acres 14 building lots 13 vacant 145 acres Residential Final Plat/Plan Approved-No Development Comments 1.Holly Lane Single Family Unimproved street Block 2,Victoria Heights Addition 8 lots 4.3 acres 2.East Hillside Terrace Single Family Country Club Heights No.5 6 lots 3.2 acres 3.Southwestern Mobile Home Court Manufactured home park No improvements Wallerium Addition No.2 59 spaces 14.8 acres 4.Twin Oaks Phase III Single family No improvements 21 lots 6.2 acres 5.Central Mall Subdivision Single/multi family No improvements 56 lots single family 25 acres 96 dwelling units multi family 16 acres open space Vacant Commercial Tracts/Final Plat Approved-No Development Comments • 1.Hocking Addition No.2 Commercial(C-71 No improvements 2 lots 14.5 acres 2.Triplett Addition Commercial[C-31 2 lots 3 acres 3.Mayflower Addition Office[C-I) 1 lot 1.2 acres 4.Lundberg Addition Commercial[C-3] Lot 1 1 lot 10.2 acres 5.Gik Addition Commercial[C-3) 2 lots 3.38 acres 6.Lambertz Addition Commercial(C-5) I lot 10.9 acres 7.Sullivan Addition Commercial(C-5] 5829' 1 lot 16.2 acres 8.Block 6 Commercial[C-3) Replat of Schippel's Addition 16 lots 4.96 acres 9.Lot 1,Surveyor's Plat 52 Commercial[C-3J Replat of Lot 3&the E.70'of I lot 8.8 acres Lot 4 and part of Lot 2 10 lots 7.0 acres Pending Projects-Preliminary Plats/Plans Approved Comments 1.Austin Subdivision Single family Rezoning/final plat 63 lots 18 acres pending 2.Mariposa Phase II Townhomes Dependent on completion Block 5-56 units 16 acres of east Salina water tower Block 6-56 units Block 7- 118 units 3.Northeast Industrial Park Industrial Ten years to develop site Several individual tracts totaling 84 acres Vacant--approximately 45 acres Development Plans Approved-Ingctive Comments • 1.Courtney Office Park Savings and Loan facility .8 acre Georgetown&Crawford 2.Georgetown PDD Commercial/Office Fairdale&Crawford 10 lots 7 acres 9 vacant lots 6.3 acres 3. Wilbur PDD Office Park Development Plans Approved - Inactive • This category includes plans which have received final plan approval but, for whatever reason, have not been pursued and remain inactive. These plans are believed to have the least probability of all categories for completion. Plans in this category include two commercial projects and an office park project. Were these plans to be developed under prior approvals, they would result in 122,000 square feet of new commercial and office space. DEMOGRAPHIC AND MARKET OVERVIEW ANALYSIS An understanding of the growth and composition of the local population is an important foundation of Salina's Comprehensive Plan. Demographic analysis is composed of an evaluation of historic trends in population change within the community as well as an examination of the detailed characteristics, such as household composition, age, and race, of the residents who live there. As will be seen in the following analysis, the City of Salina is a mature community, exhibiting many of the characteristics of other such communities throughout the country. There is modest growth in its population base, moderate increase in households, growth in the percentage share of population over 65 years of age, and a decreasing percentage share of children under 17 years. The following analysis is composed of three parts: 1) population trends; 2) population forecast; and 3) selected population characteristics. The information is based on data obtained from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Kansas Department of Human Resources, Kansas State Demographer's Office, • City of Salina Planning Department, and Urban Decision Systems(UDS). Please note that tables 7-20 have been moved to the Appendix of this report. Historic Population Trends and Population Forecast According to the Census Bureau, the City of Salina's population totaled 42,300 persons in 1990. This was an increase of 1.1 percent,or 460 persons, over the 1980 population of 41,840. During the 1980s, Salina's rate of growth exceeded that of Saline County (less than one percent) but lagged behind the state's nearly five percent rate of increase. These trends are shown in Table 4, Population Trends: 1970 - 1990. The population figures in this table also indicate that Salina and Saline County experienced higher rates of growth (approximately eight percent and five percent, respectively) in the 1970 to 1980 period. These were years of economic expansion and resident migration for both the City and the County. There are no statistics available for historic or current population in the planning area. However, based upon land-use, it is estimated that 320 persons lived in the planning area in 1990. Table 5, Population Growth Comparison: 1970-1980, compares the growth rate of Salina with those of nearby cities -- Hutchinson, Manhattan,Topeka and Wichita-- and the state. The figures indicate that, like Salina, Hutchinson and Manhattan also experienced higher growth rates between 1970 and 1980. In comparison,Topeka and Wichita experienced their greatest increase in population during the 1980s; in this same ten year span, the state's growth rate declined modestly. 0 Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 17 i TABLE 4 POPULATION TRENDS: 1970-1990 Census 1970 1 Census 1980 Census 1990 Salina 38,800 41,840 42,300 Saline County 46,590 48,900 49,300 Kansas 2,246,580 2,363,680 2,477,570 Salina as Percent of Saline County 83.3% 85.6% 85.8% • Change in Population - Absolute and Percent 1970-1980 1981-1990 1970-1980 1981-1990 Salina 3,040 460 7.8% 1.1% Saline County 2,310 400 5.0% 0.8% Kansas 117,100 113,890 5.2% 4.8% Source: 1970, 1980, and 1990 data from U.S. Bureau of the Census • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 18 TABLE 5 • POPULATION GROWTH COMPARISONS: 1970-1990 1 Census 1970 I Census 1980 L Census 1990 1 Hutchinson 36,890 40,280 39,310 Manhattan 27,580 32,650 37,710 Salina 38,800 41,840 42,300 Topeka 125,010 115,270 119,880 Wichita 276,550 279,270 304,010 Kansas 2,246,580 2,363,680 2,477,570 Change in Population - Absolute and Percent • 1970-1980 1981-1990 1970-1980 1981-1990 Hutchinson 3,390 (970) 9.2% - 2.4% Manhattan 5,070 5,060 18.4% 15.5% Salina 3,040 460 7.8% .1.1% Topeka (9,740) 4,610 - 7.8% 4.0% Wichita 2,720 24,740 1.0% 8.9% Kansas 117,100 113,690 5.2% 4.8% Source: 1970, 1980, and 1990 data from U.S. Bureau of the Census III Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 19 • Most of the residents who live in Saline County reside in Salina. In 1970, approximately 83 percent of those living in Saline County resided in Salina. In 1990, the City's population was nearly 86 percent of County population. It is expected that this trend will continue. The State of Kansas does not project population at the City level. The State demographer's office does provide population projections for counties and the state, but these are based on the 1980 Census and have not yet been updated to reflect 1990 Census figures. Our analysis shows that both the County and State projections for 1990 are higher than the actual 1990 figures reported by the Census Bureau; therefore, they have not been used in this report as the basis for any population projections. The projections in Table 6 were obtained from the City of Salina's Planning Department. They are based on historic population and migration trends in the city and take into consideration data from the 1990 Census. As stated previously, the 1990 population for Salina is 42,300 persons. It is projected that in 1995, the City's population will total 43,300, a 2.4 percent increase. Between 1995 and 2010, the City's population is expected to grow by nearly eight percent, or approximately 2.5 percent per five year period. This will result in a 2010 population of 46,700 in the City of Salina. Historic Household Trends and Household Forecast Generally, the rate of household formation exceeds growth in population because of the increasing number of single person households, longer life expectancies, increased single parent families and the S rate of divorce. This is accompanied by declining household size. Salina followed both these national trends. In Salina, the number of households has steadily increased since 1970. Between 1980 and 1990, the number of households in Salina grew by 6.7 percent to 17,290. This compares to the 1.1 percent increase in the resident base during this period. It is projected that households will increase to 18,010 in 1995 and grow to 19,700 in 2010. These trends are shown in Appendix Tables 7 and 8. Salina's household size decreased from 2.98 persons in 1970 to 2.40 in 1990. During the years ahead, Salina is projected to experience a steady but small decline in household size. Household size is forecasted at 2.38 in 1995 and 2.35 in 2010. Age of Residents Since 1970, the average age of Salina's residents has increased. Children 17 years old and under composed almost 36 percent of the population in 1970. In 1990, the share was 26 percent. Those between the ages of 25 years and 44 years, the time of family formation, grew from 23 percent to more than 31 percent; and the elderly, or those over 65 years in age, increased from 10.4 percent to 14.4 percent. During this same time span,Salina's median age increased from 26.7 years to 33.1 years. It is projected that this"aging"trend will continue, reflecting forecasts for the nation. (See Appendix Table 9). • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 20 TABLE 6 • POPULATION FORECASTS FOR SALINA: 1990-2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 • Salina 42,300 43,300 44,300 45,500 46,700 Change in Population - Absolute 1990-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 Salina 1,000 1,000 1,200 1,200 Change in Population - Percent 1990-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 Salina 2.4% 2.3% 2.7% 2.6% • Source: City of Salina Planning Department Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 21 • Racial Distribution Racial distribution became a little more diverse between 1970 and 1990. The white population fell from approximately 95 percent to 93 percent and the black population declined from nearly four percent to 3.5 percent. Other ethnic populations (Asians, Pacific Islanders, Native Americans, etc.) grew from less than one percent to 3.3 percent. Persons of Hispanic/Spanish descent also increased, rising from 1.9 percent to 2.7 percent. This information is shown in Appendix Table 10. Socioeconomic Analysis Primary emphasis in this analysis is placed upon evaluating and understanding those facets of the Salina economy which have caused economic growth and expansion in the past, and will impact growth and development in the future. Specific considerations in this section include income trends; labor force characteristics; occupational profile;employment, by place of work;retail sales;real estate valuation; and construction activity. The sources for this information include the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Kansas Department of Human Resources, the City of Salina Planning Department and Permits and Inspection Division, and Urban Decision Systems. It is important to note that income and employment information for 1990 will not be available from the Census Bureau until early 1992. As such, some of the information in this section refers to 1980 or are estimates which will be updated at a later date. Income Trends Since 1970, Salina's per capita income has risen (Appendix Table 11). It exceeded the per capita income figures for the County in 1970 and 1990 and was only slightly less than the County's in 1980. • Specifically, in 1970 per capita income for the City was $2,801, rising to $7,411 in 1980 and to an estimated $12,406 in 1990. In comparison, the County's per capita income figures were $2,726, $7,416 and $12,046 (estimated), respectively. Salina's average household income levels also rose during this 20 year period, from $8,614 in 1970 to an estimated $30,098 in 1990. Once again, the levels were greater than those in the County in both 1970 and 1990--$8,306 and $29,734 (estimated), respectively. Household income distribution in the city shifted during this same time period. In 1970, 47 percent of households earned less than $15,000, and 29 percent earned between $15,000 and $25,000. Only 2.8 percent had incomes in excess of $50,000. In 1990, Urban Decision Systems estimates that 23 percent of all households had incomes under $15,000, 19 percent had incomes between $15,000 and $25,000, and nearly 22 percent had incomes of at least $50,000. Comparisons of household income distribution in the City with that in the County are included in Appendix Table 12. As can be seen, those households with the highest income levels resided in the City. For example, in 1990, over 28 percent of all County households had income levels under $15,000 while approximately 13 percent had incomes over $50,000. Labor Force Characteristics According to the Kansas Department of Human Resources, in 1990, the civilian labor force in Salina was composed of 24,490 residents. Of this total, 23,410 persons were employed, an increase of 10 percent over 1985. The unemployment rate was 4.4 percent, slightly higher than the County's • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 22 unemployment rate of 4.2 percent. For both the City and County, the 1990 unemployment rates were a decline from the highs of 7.0 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively, posted in 1985. Labor force 411 trends are shown in Appendix Table 13. Employment by Industry and Occupation In 1980 (the latest year for which Census information is available), 20,640 Salina residents were employed. This was an increase of 38 percent over 1970's residential employment total of 14,950. The service industry was the primary employer, accounting for nearly 30 percent of jobs. This was followed by manufacturing and retail trade. These industries also provided the most employment in 1970, and it is expected that this pattern should continue through the next decade. (See Appendix Table 14) In 1980, nearly 53 percent of all residents were employed in white collar occupations. These include managerial, professional, technical, sales, and administrative type jobs. This is shown in Appendix Table 15. The remaining 47 percent were employed in blue collar jobs, such as service, production, fabricators, operators, and laborers. Occupational employment figures have not yet been released from the 1990 Census. Place of Work Employment Trends and Employment Forecast The Department of Human Resources calculates at place of work employment at the County level. Extrapolations must be made from these figures to determine the number and types of employees working in the City of Salina. No state or local agency provides employment projections. Appendix Tables 16 and 17 show place of work employment trends for Saline County for 1980, 1985, and 1990. Between 1980 and 1990, the number of employees in the County increased from 23,100 to 25,400, a III gain of nearly 10 percent. Employment growth, however, did not grow steadily during this ten year period-- in 1985 the number of persons employed in the County fell to 22,200, reflecting the high unemployment rate previously mentioned which resulted from the loss of a major Transportation/ Communications/ Public Utility (TCPU) firm. In the 1985 to 1990 period, the largest employment increases occurred in manufacturing, services, and retail trade. It is interesting to note that, unlike in many cities and metropolitan areas throughout the country where manufacturing declined in the past five to ten years, its employment increased in Saline County. This reflects the strength of the manufacturers located there. TCPU and construction were the only categories which lost employment in both the 1980 to 1985 and 1986 to 1990 periods. There has not been a lot of employment diversification in Salina between 1980 and 1990. In 1990, the largest employer in the County was the service industry at 24.5 percent, followed by manufactur- ing at 23 percent and retail trade at 20.7 percent. These were also the largest employers in 1980. At that time, their percentage shares of total employment were services, 21.9 percent, manufacturing, 19.7 percent, and retail trade, 20.3 percent. As mentioned above, at place of work employment figures are unavailable at the City level. The estimates in this report are based upon information supplied by City staff, Kansas Department of Human Resources and the Chamber of Commerce as well as the historical relationship between employment in the City and County for retail trade, wholesale trade, manufacturing and services. Of all persons employed in the County in retail and service jobs, 95 percent or greater worked in the City(Appendix Table 18). For wholesale trade and manufacturing employment,the percentages were approximately 80 percent and 73 percent, respectively. In these latter two industries, a number of • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 23 0 large businesses, such as Phillips Lighting and Exide Battery, are located south of the City limits. It is assumed that this employment distribution was comparable in 1990, and it is projected that it should continue to be so into the next decade. Moreover, the City estimates that 3,400 are employed in the planning area(13%) and 450 (2%) in the remainder of the County. Thus, with this as its basis, the estimate for at place of work employment for Salina in 1990 is 21,550 or 85 percent of total employment in the County. City staff projects that nearly 6,200 jobs will be added to the employment base in Salina between 1990 and 2030. We concur with this estimate. This would be a 31 percent increase over 1990, or a four percent increase per five year period. This is a more achievable gain given the maturity of Salina, the land development potential south of the city limits, the lack of large employers considering entrance to this marketplace, and the present state of the national economy. Given the four percent projected increases, employment in the City should reach 25,210 in 2010. The City should benefit from the largest employment increases in the service, manufacturing and retail trade industries. As previously stated, the City estimates 3,400 persons are employed in the planning area. Of this total, 85 percent are employed in industries which are located on the south side of the City. It is projected that employment in the planning area will also increase by four percent per five year period between 1990 and 2010. Economic Growth Characteristics Appendix Table 18,Economic Growth Characteristics looks at employment,number of establishments and total sales/ receipts, and reinforces the strength of Salina in the County's total economy. In both 1982 and 1987 (the most recent years for which Census information is available), approximately 97 percent of all retail and 94 percent of all service employees, places of business and sales emanated • from the City. For wholesale trade and manufacturing, the distributions were approximately 81 percent and 74 percent, respectively. The lower percentage shares of the latter two industries were due to the number of establishments located in the growing industrial locations in the planning area, immediately south of the City limits. Retail Sales Total retail sales in Salina were $408.3 million in 1989, a 44 percent increase over 1983. During this same period, the County's sales increased 45.5 percent to $418.3 million. According to Appendix Table 19, Retail Sales Trends: 1983 - 1989, which is based on information from Sales and Marketing Management, Salina's share of total County retail sales fluctuated slightly during these years but still maintained its extremely high percentage of approximately 97 percent. It is expected that Salina's domination of the County's retail marketplace will continue. Property Valuation Property valuations in Appendix Table 20 also illustrates the strength of Salina in the local county- wide economy. This table compares Salina's increasing property valuation level with that of Saline County in the 1984-1991 period. During that time, the City's share of the County's valuation increased from 66.8 percent to 71.7 percent. Also, between these years, Salina's valuation increased at a higher rate than did that of the County. In 1991, property valuation in Salina is $160,112.1 million, a 49 percent increase over 1984. Saline County's valuation is $223,370.1, a 39 percent gain over 1984. • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 24 age Property valuation refers to real estate, personal property, oil and gas, state assessed properties, and motor vehicle licenses. • Recent Year Development Activity Between 1980 and 1990, permits were issued for the construction of 1,316 dwelling units in Salina. Of these, 57 percent were single family, seven percent were townhomes or duplexes, and 36 percent were other types of multi-family residential. Most of this development activity was located on the east and south sides of Salina. Table 21 shows residential permit activity between 1980 and 1990. The number of dwelling units authorized and constructed has fluctuated from a high of 248 units in 1986 to a low of 60 units in 1982 during the eleven year period. In 1990, permits were issued for 168 dwelling units. The average annual rate was 68 single family homes,eight townhomes/duplexes,and 44 multi-family residences. City staff indicates that single family units were generally developed at a density of four per acre, townhomes and duplexes at eight per acre, and other multi-family units at a density of 12 per acre. Tables 22 and 23 show retail, non-retail commercial, office and industrial activity in Salina and the planning area between 1980 and 1990. It is based upon information presented in building permits issued each year. In these tables, commercial space includes service and lodging square footage. As can be seen, permits were issued for nearly 2.5 million square feet in the City and nearly 666,500 square feet in the planning area for a total of over 3.1 million square feet of space. Locations in the planning area are served by City water and sewer, have good access, and are very competitive to sites located within the Salina limits. In the City, the construction of retail space generated over 33 percent of the activity; commercial space was responsible for 29 percent and industrial space, 28 percent. Office square footage accounted for 10 percent of the total space constructed. In comparison, in the planning area, industrial space construction accounted for 91 percent of the development activity, followed by commercial uses with eight percent. There was minimal office building construction and no building of retail space. In the planning area, industrial construction totaled nearly 1.3 million square feet; the average annual rate was 117,252 square feet. According to interviews with local government officials and private sector sources, the bulk of this activity focused on the west side of the City in and near the Airport Industrial Center, a 2,000 acre development and in the planning area on the south side of the city. In these ten years, North American Phillips, located in the planning area, constructed over 227,400 square feet of additional industrial space. The average floor area ratio (FAR) for industrial space constructed in Salina is estimated at 0.40. Retail space totaled 829,090 square feet, for an average annual pace of 75,372 square feet. Permits issued for three major projects, all located in the city, dominated the activity. These were Central Mall and Galaxy Shops in 1986 with 454,382 square feet, Walmart in 1989 with 114,557 square feet, plus Sears and K Mart additions in 1990 with 112,100 square feet. The average annual floor area ratio (FAR) for the 1980-1990 period is estimated at 0.25. Commercial space totaled 761,224 square feet, for an average annual rate of 69,202 square feet. The major development was the Holidome in 1985 with 179,130 square feet. The average FAR is estimated at 0.25. Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 25 • TABLE 21 RESIDENTIAL UNITS PERMITTED IN SALINA: 1980-1990 Townhomes/ Year Single Family Duplexes Multi-Family TOTAL 1980 79 10 32 121 1981 65 0 49 114 1982 40 2 18 60 1983 78 12 38 128 1984 85 2 27 114 1985 57 6 21 84 1986 56 10 182 248 1987 53 12 22 87 • 1988 75 12 5 92 1989 78 15 6 100 1990 80 11 77 168 TOTAL 746 92 477 1,316 Annual Average 1980-1990 68 8 44 120 Source: City of Salina, Permits and Inspection Division IIISalina Comprehensive Plan Page 26 TABLE 22 COMMERCIAL• AND INDUSTRIAL SPACE PERMITTED IN SALINA AND PLANNING AREA: 1980-1990 (in square feet) SALINA Non-Retail Year Retail Commercial Office Industrial TOTAL 1980 7,200 15,568 16,556 50,880 90,204 1981 4,800 35,934 41,416 50,739 132,889 1982 16,932 31,238 11,139 53,932 113,241 1983 7,925 103,903 42,574 88,488 242,890 1984 8,700 28,908 25,771 109,076 172,455 1985 71,528 233,874 23,796 45,276 374,474 III 1986 454,382 43,942 47,094 53,415 598,833 1987 25,366 51,757 10,780 91,643 179,546 1988 5,600 39,048 14,494 6,150 65,292 1989 114,557 58,455 5,900 63,030 241,942 1990 112,100 67,270 17,496 68,775 265,641 TOTAL 829,090 709,897 257,016 681,404 2,477,407 Annual Average 1980-1990 75,372 64,536 23,365 61,946 225,219 -continued next page- 6 Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 27 0 TABLE 22 - CONTINUED - COMMERCIAL' AND INDUSTRIAL SPACE PERMITTED IN SALINA AND PLANNING AREA: 1980-1990 (in square feet) PLANNING AREA Non-Retail Year Retail Commercial Office Industrial TOTAL 1980 0 24,000 0 94,936 118,936 1981 0 0 0 29,570 29,570 1982 0 6,200 0 0 6,200 1983 0 2,000 0 27,074 29,074 1984 0 0 0 1,736 1,736 1985 0 0 6,800 6,500 13,300 III1986 0 0 0 86,535 86,535 1987 0 19,127 0 33,416 52,543 1988 0 0 0 7,350 7,350 1989 0 0 0 111,130 111,130 1990 0 0 0 210,118 210,118 TOTAL 0 51,327 6,800 603,365 666,492 Annual Average 1980-1990 0 4,666 618 55,306 60,590 Commercial includes service, and hotel/motel space. Source: City of Salina, Permits and Inspection Division • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 28 TABLE 23 • TOTAL COMMERCIAL' AND INDUSTRIAL SPACE PERMITTED IN SALINA AND PLANNING AREA: 1980-1990 (in square feet) SALINA AND PLANNING AREA Non-Retail Year Retail Commercial Office Industrial TOTAL 1980 7,200 39,568 16,556 145,816 209,140 1981 4,800 35,934 41,416 80,309 162,459 1982 16,932 37,438 11,139 53,932 119,441 1983 7,925 105,903 42,574 115,562 271,964 1984 8,700 28,908 25,771 110,812 174,191 1985 71,528 233,874 30,596 51,776 387,774 1986 454,382 43,942 47,094 139,950 685,368 II 1987 25,366 70,884 10,780 125,059 232,089 1988 5,600 39,048 14,494 13,500 72,642 1989 114,557 58,455 5,900 174,160 353,072 1990 112,100 67,270 17,496 278,893 475,759 TOTAL 829,090 761,224 263,816 1,289,769 3,143,899 Annual Average 1980-1990 75,372 69,202 23,983 117,252 285,809 • Commercial includes service, and hotel/motel space. Source: City of Salina, Permits and Inspection Division S Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 29 • Permits were issued for the development of 263,816 square feet of office space, for an annual average of 23,983 square feet. The largest project was People's Heritage in 1986 with 44,980 square feet. Local sources indicate that most of the new office development during the 1980s was located on the south side of the city near Central Mall, at Crawford and Broadway, and along and proximate to east Crawford and Ohio. Office space in the 1980-90 period was generally developed at 0.25 FAR. The prospects are excellent for continued favorable economic growth in Salina and its planning area during the 1990 decade and beyond. Forecasts for population, households and employment should be achieved. The City offers attractive residential areas in a stable environment, excellent schools, transportation advantages,a healthy business climate,well developed community services and"living" amenities, and, all in all, a desirable quality of life. Its highly accessible location locally, regionally, and nationally, enhances its assets. Because it is a mature community, the future development of properties for residential,retail,service,lodging,office,industrial,institutional,and public uses must be done comprehensively and be based on the needs and strengths of the City. Land-Use Forecasts This section presents the results of a market analysis of Salina and projects the potential demand for various market-related land-uses as a basis for the new Comprehensive Plan. Tabular exhibits showing the methodological determinations of future land-use are found at the end of the section. Market-related uses which have been assessed include single and multi-family housing, retail, office, industrial, and lodging facilities. The demand projections are expressed in dwelling units, square footage or rooms needed through 2010 over the 1990 existing supply. It must be noted that public, quasi-public and institutional land-uses are generally not market- oriented. Nevertheless, they are value generating in that they enhance the "living amenities" and desirability of a community as a place in which to live and work. These include such uses as municipal,educational and institutional facilities, public parking,parks and playgrounds,etc. Land- use needs for these uses are subject to the dictates of good city planning principles,political decisions, and community goals and priorities. Overview of the Salina Market It is important to remember that Salina is a mature, established community with a viable downtown, built-up residential and commercial areas, and vacant acreage which can accommodate additional residential, commercial, industrial and lodging uses. The challenge in Salina will be to ensure that remaining developable land is used most efficiently and effectively in the future. In general, potential sites and developments should be assessed in terms of: 1) most fitting and appropriate use; 2) compatibility with surrounding uses and transportation patterns; 3) fiscal impacts; and 4) conformance with local goals and objectives. In all cases, efforts should be made to achieve high quality development, regardless of type of use. When reviewing the forecasts on the following pages, it must be remembered that they represent development potential based upon past trends and information available from the 1990 Census. Residential Development Potential According to the U.S. Census, Salina had 18,410 dwelling units in 1990 with a vacancy rate of six percent. Of the total dwelling units, 64 percent were owner occupied; 36 percent were renter occupied. As shown in Appendix Table 18, permit activity between 1980 and 1990 indicates that new • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 30 construction has been approximately 60 percent single family, 10 percent townhomes and duplexes, • and 30 percent other multi-family residential. Much of the new residential development has been located in subdivisions on the east and south sides of the City. Table 24 shows demand potential for single and multi-family housing units in the City and planning area. It begins with the population levels projected for each five year period between 1995 through 2010. Based on historic trends, the number of persons in housing units is then determined. Dividing this figure by the projections for persons per occupied housing unit produces the estimate for the number of occupied housing units. Estimated vacancy rates are then applied to the number of occupied units to calculate the total demand for housing units. The five percent vacancy rate used is one that is indicative of a healthy residential market. The measure of the approximate additional number of housing units needed is determined by subtracting the housing inventory in 1990 from the total demand projected for each of the five years between 1995 and 2010. The single and multi-family shares of this expected construction are then extrapolated to arrive at the approximate number of additional units of all types that will be needed to house Salina residents. Lastly, density per acre ratios are applied to the incremental unit demand to determine acreage requirements. As calculated, potential demand exists for 569 new units in 1995--341 single family, 57 townhomes/- duplexes, and 171 multi-family. The approximate acreage needed to support this new development will be 85 acres for single family, seven acres for the townhomes and 14 acres for other types of multi-family residential uses. The projected demand in 2010 could reach 2,374 additional units on approximately 446 acres--I,425 single family on 356 acres,237 townhomes on 30 acres,and 712 units of multi-family residential on 59 acres. Taking into consideration the locations for proposed housing developments, the lack of existing housing in the planning area, and a knowledge of the market, it is likely that new residential construction will be generally located in subdivisions on the south and 411 east sides of Salina. Presently, projects are pending for 360 single family and 326 multi-family dwellings in the City. Based upon past construction and absorption trends and the forecasts for modest population increases, this proposed supply should be sufficient to accommodate growth through 1996. Retail Development Potential Presently the City contains nearly 1.1 million square feet of retail space in nine shopping areas in Salina. There is no retail development in the planning area. The bulk of the existing space, 465,950 square feet, is located in the Central Mall and Galaxy Shopping Center on the south side of the City. Together, these two centers have an occupancy rate of 82 percent. The overall occupancy rate of the nine retail areas in the City is estimated at 71 percent. This lower rate is largely due to the 35 percent occupancy in the Mid State Mall. Constructed in 1971, Mid State Mall has suffered from the development of Central Mall across the street in 1986, and the relocation of Walmart, from Mid State, to its own freestanding building on the south edge of town in 1990. • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 31 TABLE 24 • SALINA HOUSING UNIT DEMAND: 1980-2010 f1980 I 1990 I 1995 I 2000 I 2005 1 2010 Population in Salina 41,840 42,300 43,300 44,300 45,500 46,700 Population Planning Area NA 320 330 340 355 370 Total Population 41,840 42,620 43,630 44,640 45,855 47,070 % in Housing Units 97.6% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% Persons in Housing Units 40,820 41,768 42,757 43,747 44,938 45,770 Persons per Occupied Housing Unit 2.52 2.40 2.38 2.37 2.36 2.35 Number of Households or Occupied Housing Units NA 17,424 18,150 18,657 19,255 19,865 Vacancy Rate 8.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Existing Housing Units NA 18,536 19,105 19,639 20,268 20,911 Additional Units Needed • Over 1990 569 1,103 1,732 2,374 Single Family @ 60% 341 662 1,039 1,425 Townhome/Duplex @ 10% 57 110 173 237 Multi-Family @ 30% 171 331 520 712 Additional Acreage Needed Over 1990 107 207 325 445 Single Family @ 4 DUs/A 85 165 260 356 Twnhms/D'plex @ 8 DUs/A 7 14 22 30 Multi-Family @ 12 DUs/A 14 28 43 59 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census; City of Salina Planning Department; Trkla, Pettigrew, Allen & Payne IIISalina Comprehensive Plan Page 32 Retail and all other types of commercial and service uses in the downtown occupy over 1.5 million • square feet and have a combined occupancy rate of around 90 percent. It is not possible at this time to obtain an inventory of strictly retail or office/commercial square footage located in the downtown. Available space is largely the result of major retailers, such as Sears and Wards, and other smaller retailers and tenants leaving the downtown for locations near shopping centers. Local sources report that vacant space, for the most part, in the downtown and throughout the remainder of the City could be retenanted by other users and should not be qualified as dysfunctional or obsolete. In general, retail potential is based upon trade area demands and is insensitive to local boundaries. Thus, total demand for additional space in Salina will depend upon income and population growth in the greater regional market area and on the locational advantages of available sites and locations. The demand for retail space on specific locations must be determined by trade area analyses for each of the respective sites. On this basis, it is reasonable to assume that additional retail development will occur in Salina, particularly at highly accessible locations along major arterial routes. There also could be a market shift in the City, as happened previously with the opening of Central Mall, where retail uses transfer from other shopping centers or from nearby communities. Older centers, downtown areas, and strip centers with undersized major tenants typically are most affected by such market shifts. Salina's development policies with respect to retail trade and, especially with preservation and enhancement of the Central Business District, should consider these issues and their consequences. It is important to note that, according to Downtown Salina, Inc., 4,000 employees work in the downtown and approximately 20,000 customers or clients are served daily. Downtown Salina has begun to find a niche in specialty retail, and the City needs to understand, support, and relate to the downtown as an important retail market opportunity in both the short term and the future. For the purposes of this Comprehensive Plan, the retail market demand forecast relates to the specific • demand generated by growth in population and income solely in the City of Salina and the planning area. This is shown in Table 25, Retail Space Demand: 1990 - 2010. Salina's population and per capita income are expected to increase through 2010. This will add incremental demand and spending power for the types of retail uses generally located in community shopping centers and downtowns, i.e., department store type merchandise, specialty goods, food, pharmaceuticals, and eating and drinking establishments. Assuming that buying patterns in Salina and the planning area are reflective of the residents who live there, the percent of disposable income spent on these types of goods can be calculated. In 1990 this share was 53.9 percent. Applying this percent to total income for the area calculates to $355.1 million spent on retail goods in 1995 and a projected $689.8 million in 2010. Dividing by the Urban Land Institute sales per square foot figure for centers in the North Central U.S. arrives at a demand for 130,627 square feet of additional space in 1995. Retail space needed in 2010 over 1990 will be 600,086 square feet. Applying the estimated FAR of 0.25, the additional square footage could be accommodated on 12 acres in 1995 and 56 acres in 2010. It is important to note that this additional demand does not take into consideration the releasing of any existing retail space. It also does not consider retail space that may be lost due to conversion to non-retail uses. Unfortunately, it is not possible to quantify these activities in this report and adjust the demand figures accordingly. It is projected that new retail construction will largely be located within the City limits. Any development activity that occurs in the planning area will more than likely be in response to the construction of new residential subdivisions or built in conjunction with industrial/ business park developments. • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 33 0 TABLE 25 SALINA RETAIL SPACE DEMAND: 1980-2010 II 1980 1990 1 1995 2000 1 2005 2010 Population in Salina 41,840 42,300 43,300 44,300 45,500 46,700 Population in Planning Area NA 320 330 340 355 370 Total Population 41,840 42,620 43,630 44,640 45,855 47,070 Per Capita Income* $7,410 $12,410 $15,100 $18,370 $22,350 $27,190 Total Income (000s) $310,034 $528,914 $658,813 $820,037 $1,024,859 $1,279,833 % of Income Spent on Shopping Goods, Food, Eating & Drinking 53.9% 53.9% 53.9% 53.9% 53.9% 53.9% Income Spent on Shopping Goods, Food, Eating & Drinking $167,108.5 $285,084.8 $355,100.2 $441,999.8 $552,399.1 $689,830.1 Illales Per Square Foot** $164 $190 $220 $255 $295 Square Foot Demand 1,738,322 1,868,948 2,009,090 2,166,271 2,338,407 Square Foot Demand Over 1990 130,627 270,768 427,949 600,086 Additional Acreage Needed Over 1990 @ .25 FAR 12 25 39 55 * Increased by an inflationary factor of four percent per year. ** Increased by an inflationary factor of three percent per year. Source: Editor & Publisher; Urban Land Institute; Trkla, Pettigrew, Allen & Payne • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 34 Office Demand Potential No inventory of the existing amount of office space in the City or planning area exists. According to local brokers and the Chamber of Commerce, most of Salina's office space is located in the downtown. Aside from that, other low rise office buildings are located near Central Mall, at Broadway and Crawford, and on east Crawford near and around its intersection with Ohio; there is no office space in the planning area. Most of the buildings in these submarket locations (not including the downtown) are owner occupied. There is no great demand for speculative office building construction or for space to accommodate new office tenants relocating from outside the County. As was shown in Appendix Table 20, only 263,816 square feet of office space was constructed between 1980 and year end 1990. The local real estate community perceives the vacancy rate to be approximately 15 percent. Minimal new office building development is proposed, and that development will be located on the south and east sides of the City. Table 26 presents an office demand forecast for space in Salina. It is calculated on the basis of growth in non-agricultural employment and office prone industries, i.e., finance/ insurance/ real estate and services. As shown, non-agricultural employment for Salina and the planning area was estimated at 21,550 in 1990, potentially rising to 25,210 in 2010. Office-prone industries in 1990 accounted for approxi- mately 28 percent of total non-agricultural employment. It is projected that this share will increase to 31 percent in 2010. Generally 55 percent to 60 percent of office-prone employees are located in single or general tenant office buildings. In Salina, we have assumed this share to be 55 percent. Thus, in 1990, 1995, and 2010 it is estimated there were/ will be 3,842, 4,139, and 4,977 employees, respectively, working in office buildings in the city. The average square foot per employee figure is then applied to project employee growth. This figure • generally ranges between 200 and 225 square feet; in Salina, we have used 200 square feet. Finally, by subtracting the estimated amount of office space in 1990, the demand for additional space per five year period is determined. This is projected at 59,345 square feet in 1995 which, at an FAR of 0.25, could be accommodated on approximately six acres. The space and acreage projections for 2010 are 226,919 additional square feet on 21 acres. It is forecasted that, in the future, the majority of any new office space construction will be located in the City in the existing submarkets. It is possible that if industrial/ business park development occurs in the planning area in the future, especially around the southern half of the City, new office construction could be a component of this development. Industrial Demand Potential There is no inventory of existing industrial space in Salina or the planning area. However, as was shown in Appendix Table 19, in excess of 681,400 square feet of space was constructed in the City and 608,365 square feet was constructed in the Planning Area, for a total of almost 1.3 million square feet between 1980 and 1990. Most of the newer industrial space in the City was located in the Airport Industrial Center, a 2,000 acre development on the west side. New space in the planning area was largely developed south of the City. Like the office market, little speculative construction exists, and many of the buildings are constructed solely for a single user. Local sources report that there is little vacancy in the industrial market. Presently, three buildings (over 10,000 square feet) totaling approximately 82,000 square feet are available. Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 35 • TABLE 26 • SALINA OFFICE SPACE DEMAND: 1990-2010 1990 1995 2000 I 2005 1 2010 Salina Non-Agricultural Employment Estimates 21,550 22,410 23,310 24,240 25,210 Employment Estimate for Planning Area 3,400 3,540 3,680 3,830 3,980 Total Employment 24,960 25,950 26,990 28,070 29,190 % Employment in Office Prone Categories* 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% Employment in Office Prone Categories 5,240 5,709 6,208 6,737 7,298 % in Offices 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% Office Employment 2,882 3,140 3,414 3,705 4,014 Square Footage IIper Employee 200 200 200 200 200 Office Space Required 576,345 627,990 682,847 741,048 802,725 Additional Square Footage Over 1990 51,645 106,502 164,703 226,380 Additional Acreage Needed Over 1990 at 0.25 FAR 5 10 15 21 * Office Prone Categories are defined as services and finance, insurance and real estate. Source: Trkla, Pettigrew, Allen & Payne 0 Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 36 TABLE 27 SALINA INDUSTRIAL SPACE DEMAND: 1990-2010 III 1 1990 I 1995 I 2000 I 2005 1 2010 Salina Non-Agricultural Employment Estimates 21,550 22,410 23,310 24,240 25,210 Employment Estimate for Planning Area 3,400 3,540 3,680 3,830 3,980 Total Employment 24,950 25,950 26,990 28,070 29,190 % Employment in Manu- facturing and Wholesale Trade 56% 56% 55% 55% 54% Employment in Manu- facturing and Wholesale Trade 13,972 14,532 14,845 15,439 15,763 Estimated Employment -- Percent Share Manufacturing 74% 74% 75% 75% 75% Wholesale Trade 26% 26% 25% 25% 25% Estimated Employment Manufacturing 10,339 10,754 11,133 11,579 11,822 Wholesale Trade 3,633 3,778 3,711 3,860 3,941 III Square Foot Required per Employee Manufacturing 482 482 482 482 482 Wholesale Trade 1,262 1,262 1,262 1,262 1,262 Square Footage of Industrial Space Required Manufacturing 4,983,533 5,183,274 5,366,287 5,581,018 5,698,180 Wholesale Trade 4,584,493 4,768,240 4,683,440 4,870,847 4,973,100 Additional Square Footage Over 1990 383,488 481,701 883,839 1,103,255 Manufacturing 199,741 382,754 597,485 714,647 Wholesale Trade 183,747 98,947 286,354 388,608 Additional Acreage Needed Over 1990 at 0.40 FAR 23 28 50 63 Manufacturing 12 22 34 41 Wholesale Trade 11 6 16 22 Source: Trkla, Pettigrew, Allen & Payne 0 Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 37 110 The area's ability to absorb new industrial development is shown in Table 27. This determination begins with estimates of non-agricultural employment for 1990 through 2010. Since manufacturing and wholesale trade are the principal users of industrial land, their share of employment is estimated. This leads to the calculation of both manufacturing and wholesale trade employment expected in Salina and its planning area. In 1995, it is projected that there will be 6,033 manufacturing and 2,011 wholesale trade employees. The projections for 2010 are 7,321 and 2,312, respectively. Industry average employee per square foot norms (based on data from the Urban Land Institute) are then applied to the employment figures to determine the industrial square footage required to support this employment. Following this, additional square footage warranted over 1990 is calculated. These forecasts show the potential for 112,065 square feet of manufacturing and 97,805 square feet of wholesale trade space in 1995. The projections for 2010 are 732,629 additional square feet of manufacturing space and 477,317 square feet of space for wholesale trade activities. The acreages projected to accommodate these forecasts for manufacturing and wholesale trade are 6.4 acres and 5.6 acres, respectively, in 1995, and 42 acres and 27.4 acres, respectively, in 2010. To date, plans are pending for approximately 4.1 million square feet of industrial space which is more than enough to satisfy market demand in the City and planning area. It is projected that most of any new development activity in the City will be located in and near the Airport Industrial Park. In the planning area, new construction will more than likely continue south of the city limits with some spilling over to the east and west. Lodging Demand Potential Nineteen motels and lodging facilities offering a total of 1,298 rooms are found in Salina. Most of • the lodging facilities are located around or near the intersections of Interstate 70 (I-70) and North Ninth Street, proximate to the intersection of Interstate 135 (I-135) and West Crawford, or along Broadway, north of West Crawford. According to a report completed for The Bicentennial Center, nine of the motels with 991 rooms are considered better quality facilities. The newest motels are the 192 room Holiday Inn/Holidome and the 61 room Super 8, both constructed in 1985-86 near the I- 135/ West Crawford intersection. Howard Johnson's Motel is the only facility located on the south side of the City, near the Central Mall retail area. It is also the closest motel to the Airport and Airport Industrial Center as well as the South Industrial Area in the planning area. The Convention and Visitor's Division of the Salina Chamber of Commerce estimates occupancy ranges between 63 and 67 percent. This is higher than the national average occupancy rate which is hovering near 60 percent. A 60-unit Comfort Inn is under construction on West Crawford. Nine motels offer meeting facilities. However, only three -- the Holidome, Red Coach Inn, and Ramada Inn -- can accommodate significant meeting and banquet events. The Holidome has eight meeting rooms containing over 7,500 square feet of space. The main meeting hall can seat up to 1,000 theater style and 700 banquet-style. The Red Coach Inn has a banquet capacity of 200 to 225 and the Ramada Inn can accommodate between 100 and 150 persons. The Bicentennial Center, which is located on Midway, east of the downtown, offers facilities to accommodate both small (50 to 150 persons) and large (1,200 to 1,600 attendees) events. IIISalina Comprehensive Plan Page 38 Future lodging demand is a function of present demand and the occupancy rates associated with it. • The projection for additional rooms in Salina is based upon the population of the City and planning area and a general understanding of the local marketplace. Table 28, Salina Hotel Room Demand: 1990 - 2010 indicates in 2010 only 88 more rooms will be needed to satisfy lodging demand in Salina. Thus, there is no statistical need for additional rooms to serve the community. This is confirmed in interviews with local sources. However, in spite of the above evaluation, there could be both a locational need and a"room quality" need for another motel in the future. This especially holds true for the area around the Bicentennial Center. The closest facility to the Center is the shuttered Days Inn, in downtown Salina. It closed in the past several years because of adverse internal economic conditions. Attendees of events who stay overnight must drive to other locations, such as the new Holidome on West Crawford. No motel is located within walking distance or a short shuttle bus ride away. In addition, there are a limited number of motels offering the quality rooms and amenities that are attractive to those planning and staying at conventions and trade shows. According to the Bicentennial Center Market Study and Economic Impact report, the Center is a well run, effectively managed facility which successfully serves and competes in several markets. It is a civic center for the residents of Salina. It also attracts conventions and trade show business from across the state and brings people to consumer and trade shows from the six counties encompassing a 50 to 65 mile trade area around Salina. Events held at the Bicentennial Center are responsible for 239,000 out of town visitors, 27,000 hotel room nights, and $5.0 million in direct hotel, retail and restaurant expenditures and may, in fact,create a community-wide demand greater than the 88 rooms stated above. The report states Salina's assets include its central geographic location in the state and the lack of local III hotels capable of holding meetings for more than 300+ guests and multiple meeting room needs. Its disadvantages are the lack of adequate nearby hotel facilities, lack of air service to Salina, and population base with modest growth. The report concludes that the Bicentennial Center is performing well, but that there is limited potential to attract additional multi-day convention,consumer and trade show, or sporting and entertainment event business. It is a generally-accepted tenet in the convention and business industry that it is desirable to have a well-managed quality motel or hotel located within walking distance or in close proximity to a meeting and convention center. This adds to its competitiveness in the marketplace, plus it satisfies the needs of event attendees. Taking this into consideration, a new class A motel or hotel, offering dining, entertainment and athletic amenities and located near the Bicentennial Center, could be warranted in the next several years. It could help the Bicentennial Center maintain its competitive position and increase its potential for attracting regional and statewide convention, trade show, sporting event and entertainment business. III Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 39 IllTABLE 28 SALINA HOTEL ROOM DEMAND: 1990-2010 1990 1995 1 2000 2005 I 2010 Population in Salina 42,300 43,300 44,300 45,500 46,700 Population in Planning Area 320 330 340 355 370 Total Population 42,620 43,630 44,640 45,855 47,070 Ratio of Occupied Rooms per 1000 Populations 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 Occupied Room Demand in Salina 844 864 884 908 932 • Additional Demand Over 1990 20 40 64 88 * Based upon 1,298 rooms with an estimated occupancy of 65%. Source: Salina Chamber of Commerce, Conventions & Visitors' Division; Trkla, Pettigrew, Allen & Payne 0 Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 40 BUILDING CONDITIONS • The building conditions analysis is based on an extensive survey of all areas of the City conducted in the fall of 1991. The survey focused on areas within incorporated portions of the planning area. The survey did not result in recording specific building data; rather, it focused on the identification of areas with similar building condition characteristics. Criteria for judging building conditions were based on recognized standards used by the consultant in numerous studies completed throughout the country. Areas of buildings were divided into the following four categories and received final ratings as follows: • Sound. Buildings which contain no defects, are efficiently maintained, and require no treatment outside of normal maintenance. • Deficient - Requiring Minor Repair. Buildings which contain one or more minor defects which can be corrected through normal maintenance. Defects are related to the structural components visible from the exterior and do not include minor paint blistering or lack of paint over limited areas on good weather-tight surfaces. ■ Deficient - Requiring Major Repair. Buildings which contain one or more major defects over a widespread area and would be difficult to correct through normal maintenance. Buildings in the major deficient category would require replacement or rebuilding of exterior compo- nents by skilled building trades people. • Substandard. Buildings which contain two or more major defects which are so extensive that 0 the cost of repairs would be excessive in terms of producing a sufficient return on the investment required. Substandard buildings are presumed to be so advanced in deterioration that clearance is the only viable remedy. Most development areas within Salina are in good condition and well maintained. However, some areas of the community are beginning to show some signs of deterioration and warrant property maintenance. ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES The vacant, agricultural and undeveloped portions of the Salina planning area are characterized by a number of important environmental features and conditions which can influence and affect future growth and development. These include geology, elevation and slope, hydrologic conditions, soils, natural vegetation, and various human-made features. Environmental features and conditions are discussed below. Key features are also depicted on Figure 2, Environmental Features and Figure 3, Flood Hazard Areas. Primary sources for this information were the Department of Planning and Development, and various reports and studies previously prepared by or made available by the City of Salina. • Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 41 0 Geology The geology of the Salina planning area is very similar to that of greater Saline County. Permian Rock, the oldest within the region (about 200 million years) is found throughout portions of Saline County. During most of the Permian period the entire region was covered by sea. When the seas eventually dried,soil and silt began to form over layers of salt and calcium sulfide formed by periodic re-submergence. The primary geological unit within the planning area is alluvium which includes deposits from streams and floodplain consisting of unconsolidated clay, silt and sand, and gravel deposits. This area lies west of the Smoky Hill River in most of the planning area. Geological formations east of the Smoky Hill River include Kiawa Shale and Cheyenne Sandstone. Due to its resistance to erosion, sandstone is the most conspicuous feature of the Kiawa Shale and forms the sandstone heads of many of the high hills and ridges within the eastern portion of the planning area. It is important to point out that alluvium soils represent principal groundwater bearing formations along the Smoky Hill River and its tributaries. Geologic resources within Saline County include clay,gravel,gypsum,salt, sand,sandstone and shale. Sand deposits are present along the lower western banks of the Smoky Hill River as evidenced by three sand pit locations in the southern portion of the planning area. Sand is an important resource for construction of public and private buildings and facilities. Although the sand pits represent an economically viable use to the owners, future adaptive re-use is a concern once mining operations cease. Physiography 41 Physiography is the character and shape of the surface of the land. Land forms in the Salina region reflect the geologic processes that have influenced their development. The greater Salina area rests principally within an alluvial plain formed by the confluence of three major drainage tributaries within the study area the Saline River, Mulberry Creek, and the Smoky Hill River. Physiographic characteristics most important for the Salina planning program are elevation and slope. • Elevation. Salina is situated on a rather low point within greater Saline County. With a high elevation of 1,380 feet mean sea level and a low elevation of 1,206 feet mean sea level in the Saline River area to the north, there is only a 180 foot variation over a distance of nearly seven miles on a north-south axis. Equally important is that topography rises in elevation both east and west of the City. Therefore, even though elevational characteristics are not dramatic, the City rests within a "river valley." Major drainage courses virtually surround the City. Due to extensive floodplain resulting from the confluence of the three major drainageways cited above, the City has developed a major flood control levee system to protect the City. Only one major ridge line lies within the Salina planning area to the east of the Smoky Hill River. This ridge line rises to roughly 1,380 feet, the highest elevation within the planning area. The ridge line generally follows the course of the Smoky Hill River. 0 Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 42 • Slope. As noted above, the Salina planning area is relatively flat. In general, slopes greater than fifteen percent are considered unstable and unsuitable for urban development. However, • in the Salina planning area, slopes greater than ten percent have been selected for mapping purposes since virtually no portion of the area is characterized with slopes greater than fifteen percent. Those areas where slope exceeds ten percent lie between the east side of the Smoky Hill River and the major eastern ridge line, generally along the river corridor. Special sensitivity in planning and development planning should be undertaken in areas of natural slope, however, to take full advantage of a limited and important feature within the commu- nity. Hydrology Surface hydrologic conditions, i.e., rivers, streams, ponds, and flood hazard areas in the Salina planning area will play an extremely important role in the planning program. The north, east, and west portions of the planning area are heavily impacted by floodways and 100- year floodplain of three major drainageways: the Saline River to the north, Smoky Hill River to the east, and Mulberry Creek to the west. The City of Salina is involved in the Federal Emergency Management Administration's (FEMA) Flood Hazard Insurance Program, and therefore obligates itself to FEMA's rules and requirements. These requirements, in combination with State and Federal laws which control alterations to floodplain,drainageways,and wetlands,place substantial restrictions on construction and development activity. The majority of land within the floodway is located outside the City limits, except for a portion along the Smoky Hill River to the east. The flood control levee is jointly regulated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the City of Salina. Within 500 feet of either side of the levee (which is not otherwise subject to regulation as floodplain or floodway), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the City of Salina require special development review and approval to ensure that development proposals will not negatively impact upon the functions of the flood control levee. Additionally, the City of Salina exercises its right to review development proposals within 1,000 feet of the flood control levee. Within close proximity to the levee, it is critical to maintain stable subsurface hydrologic conditions as well as safeguard new subsurface construction. Extensive 100-year floodplain exists within the limits of the City. In the central and northern parts of the City, flood hazard areas follow the Smoky Hill River tributary. In the southern end of the City, however, floodplains are more extensive south of Clark Street. New developments in the area must meet Federal and State requirements for flood-proofing, design of drainage systems and other requirements. The remaining portions of the City within the floodplain levee are classified within the 500-year floodplain. Because new development has occurred in the southern and southeast portions of the City, flood hazard areas are a critical concern. Not only are these areas potentially hazardous to human-made improvements, they also serve as essential water recharge areas. Special requirements for public improvements should be considered if planning for new developments in this area continues. Soils According to the recently completed Soil Conservation Service inventory for Saline County,most soils within the study area are of four associations: Wells-Crete-Lancaster;Crete-Longford;Detroit-Herd- Sutphen;and the Irwin-Cline. The majority of these soils have formed from shale, sandstone and clay Salina Comprehensive Plan Page 45