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Comprehensive Plan Approved Draft 1980 !I , II !I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I - SALINA' - COMPREHENSIVE PLAN . . UPDATE A I-1:">ID'l€t> LSKA-I=T - O::lt:i?i? K I lG\Bo J , . , . - I ...no....... ~U(HtR ~ WllU) CONIUlTl1IIG !_f!ItS."-UWUlS & ......cloIlnca ~4.I\"N5AI u.NSAIcm.MO I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I CERTIFIED COPY Approved C""r:\~... 'I \q~ .Resolution No. ~O~D-L\ Salina City Planning Comm. Chairman SALINA COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE Secretary September 1980 . Prepared By BUCHER & WI LLI S Consulting Engineers, Planners and Architects The preparation of this report was financially aided through a federal grant from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development under the Compre- hensive Planning Assistance Program authorized by Section 701 of the Housing Act of 1954, as amended. . I I II I I I !I I I I I I I I I I I I I TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. POP ULA T I ON .......................................................... 1 THE COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE ............................... 2 HOUSEHOLD SIZE.................................................... 3 AGE-SEX PROFILE ................................................... 4 POPULATION PROJECTIONS............................................ 7 SUMMARY ........................................................... 9 ECONOMIC BASE ....................................................... 11 LABOR FORCE ....................................................... 11 EMPLOYMENT BY SECTORS ............................................. 13 INCOME ..... '. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 TRADE AREA ........................................................ 16 SUMMARY ........................................................... 18 EXISTING LAND USE................................................... 19 MAN I S USE OF LAND ................................................. 19 LAND USE INVENTORy................................................ 19 EXISTING LAND USE ................................................. 20 LAND USE CHANGES.................................................. 21 LAND USE COMPARISON ............................................... 23 SUMMARY ........................................................... 26 ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS............................ ........... 29 FLOOD I NG ..:....................................................... 29 DRAI NAGE .......................................................... 29 SOILS............................................................. 32 BEDROCK ..................................................... '. . . . . . 33 TOPOGRAPHY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . '. . . . . . 34 TREE COVER ........................................................ 35 GROUNDWATER ....................................................... 35 MINERAL RESOURCES................................................. 36, WATER AND SEWER SYSTEMS ........................................... 36 HISTORICAL STRUCTURES............................................. 37 SUMMARY .................................'.......................... 37 FUTURE LAND USE .........................................:........... 39 FRAMEWORK FOR FUTURE PLANNING ..................................... 39 COMMUNITY PLANNING PRINCIPLES ..................................... 40 Ne ighborhood Des ign ............................................. 41 Commun i ty Des i gn ................................................ 43 PLANNING PRI NCIPLES ............................................... 44 DEVELOPMENT POLICIES.............................................. 47 LAND US E ACREAGE NEEDS ............................................ 58 FUTURE LAND USE MAP ............................................... 59 Res ident i al ..................................................... 60 Parks and Recreation............................................ 61 Commerci al ...................................................... 61 Industrial...................................................... 62 SUMMARY ........................................................... 62 i I _n ii I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I INDEX TO TABLES Page No. Table 1 - Household Size........................................... 4 Table 2 - Projected Salina Population .............................. 9 Table 3 - Labor Force Participation ....:........................... 11 Table 4 - Labor Force Employment................................... 12 Tab le 5 - Labor Force by Occupat ion ................................ 13 Table 6 - EmploYment by Sector, Salina, Kansas ..................... 14 Tab le 7 - Employment by Sector ..................................... 14 Table 8 - Existing Land Use........................................ 21 Table g - Land Use Comparison...................................... 22 Table 10 - Land Use Comparison, Salina vs. Typical City............. 24 Table 11 - 5-Year Incremental Land Use .............................. 58 INDEX TO FIGURES Page No. Figure 1 - Hypothetical Improvements on a Population Line .......... 1 Figure 2 - Birth and Death Rates................................... 3 Figure 3 - Population Pyramids, 1970 ............................... 5 Figure 4 - Year 1990,2000 Population Pyramids ..................... 6 Figure 5 - Historical Population Trend ............................. 7 Figure 6 - Population Projections .;................................ 8 Figure 7 - Estimated Disposable Income............................. 16 Figure 8 - Salina Trade Area Map ................................... 17 Figure 9 - Flood Plain Profile ..................................... 30 Figure 10 - Slope Limitations to Development ........................ 34 Figure 11 - The Neighborhood Concept ..........;..................... 42 Figure 12 - Salina Nei9hborhoods .................................... 43 I _U I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I POPULATION I-- I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I POPULATION A reliable indication of future population is one of the most basic and important pieces of information in a comprehensive pl an. Determinations of future need with regard to developable land, capital improvements, util ity extensions, community facilities and hOUSing stock all rely upon an under- standi ng of popul at ion characteri st i cs and trends. In order to show change over time, population projections are made at five-year intervals throughout the planning period. This allows the keying of community projects and plans to both time and specific population levels which,in turn, will greatly as- sist efforts in planning, budgeting and financing. Unfortunately, population projections are not the result of an exact sci- ence and must, therefore, be used with caution. The factors which determine population size and composition can be affected by changes in social and ec- onomic trends which may not be foreseeable and which are often not control- able by the community. Thus, the assumptions upon which the projections are based need to be monitored periodically to ensure the continuing usefulness of the population forecasts. Based upon the tenuous nature of popul ati on forecasts, it is preferable to coordinate construction of capital improvements and expansion of municipal services with population growth rather than time. For example, the sewage treatment plant may need to be expanded when the City reaches a population of 50,000. This expansion should not be tied to a specific date since Salina may grow somewhat faster or slower than anticipated. This approach leads to improvements bei ng 1 inked to a "popul at i on 1 i ne", illustrated in Fi gure 1, rather than the more traditional "time line". Fi gure 1 HYPOTHETICAL IMPROVEMENTS ON A POPULATION LINE 100 acre industrial park widen Main Street 10 acres commercial f 100 acres residential new S.W. park 10 acres commercial expand water plant expand community building 50 acres industrial new N.E. park new W. fire station 45,000 (1980) (1985) 50,000 (1990) begin E. beltway S.E. lift station I 55,000 (1995) 60,000 I 50 acres residential N. sewer interceptor I (2000) POPULATION (YEAR) Although the implementation of this plan will not be "tied" to specific dates, it is still necessary to include the element of time in population projections to achieve two important results. First, an estimate of the pop- ulation at the end of the planning period assures that the Plan will remain a 1 useful document' for many years. Without such an estimate, the recommenda- tions of this Plan might be geared to a population so small that they are useful for only five or ten years. On the other hand, if the recommenda- tions are geared to too large a population, improvements could be grouped into increments 'too large to allow their gradual implementation in the proper sequence. Second, some improvements require considerable lead time to allow for design and to acquire the necessary financing. Thus, an indication of population growth with respect to time is essential if these pre1 iminary activities are to be completed and the improvement constructed on schedule. Before discussing the projections, it should be noted that there are severa 1 ways the community can i nf1 uence its own rate of growth -- ei ther positively or negatively. Of primary importance, of course, is the degree to which the city supports and encourages new economic development. Additional factors include the amount of land available for development, the development policies of the city, the cost and aval1abi1ity of housing, and the civic, recreational and cultural opportunities offered by the community. The pro- jections which follow are based upon historical data and thus assume that in the future these aspects of city policy will not change substantially from pa st pol icy. THE COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE The factors which determine the direction and magnitude of population change are births, deaths and migration. Each factor is subject to change independent of the others and must be projected into the future separately. The number of births minus the number of deaths is equal to the natural popu- lation increase (or decrease). The total population change is equal to the natural change plus or minus the migration of people into or out of the com- munity. Of the three factors in population change, the trend in death rates has been the most stable. The death rates for Salina, the State of Kansas, and the United States have been re1 ative1y constant, although there has been a very slight decline in recent years. Compared with the state and national rates, the mortality rate in Salina has been generally lower. In the future, the death rate is anticipated to remain stable or decline only slightly, bar- ring any major medical breakthroughs. Birth rates tend to be somewhat more erratic, but remain predictable enough to be projected with a reasonable degree of accuracy, at least for the near future. The general trend experienced by Salina, Kansas, and the United States has been one of steady decline through the 1960's and early 70's fal- lowed by three to four years of stabil ity and then by a sl ight but steady increase. Over the past decade, the birth rate for Salina has generally been higher than either the state or national rate. The birth rate in the future is expected to stabil ize eventually at somewhere near the repl acement level of 2.1 births per woman or approximately 18 births per 1,000 population. This replacement level is defined as the rate at which the natural population increase would eventually reach zero. 2 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I . ~ . "S " o 0. '0 o o :2 . 0. ~ . . a: ~i'.'(.i":J"i,:, ;~'",;.",~\;(' ;." ~;.,,-\O ',,\}:N;FF.,!';';" , Figure 2 BIRTH AND DEATH RATES Sal i na, Kansas 20 ~ ......... .- .. --- --'"'<::. IRTH RATE .--- ----- --- - ---- - ~ DEATH RAT SALINA .---. U.S. " o . ~ ~ ~ ~. . o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ . ~ ~ ;: ~ Year Source: Sal i ne County Health Department and the U.S. Department of Vital Statistics Migration is the factor which is least predictable. This is because migration trends are extremely sensitive to changes in the economy, in municipal policies toward development, and to changes in social values. Historically, the predominant trend at the national level has been a migra- tion from rural to urban areas. The state has experienced a similar trend, although through the 50's and 60's the state as a whole suffered from out- migration. In the past three years, however, there has been a reversal of the rural to urban migration trend at the National level, although it is not clear what the magnitude and duration of this reversal will be. To some de- gree, this same trend can be seen at the state level. As a whole, Kansas has enjoyed in-migration through most of the 70's. Within the state, several rural counties are now experiencing in-migration instead of the out-migration of the past. Furthermore, those counties still losing population to out- migration tend to be doing so at a slower rate. While Salina has undoubtably experienced the same trends, they have been overshadowed by the migration associated with the opening and closing of Schilling Air Force Base. During the 50's, when the base was reactivated, the county had a net in-migration of 10,804 persons. Deactivation during the 60's, however, resulted in an out-migration during that decade of 16,486 persons. Ouri ng the 70' s, the City recovered and has experi enced i n- migration for most of the decade. HOUSEHOLD SIZE One trend which has a substantial impact on hous'ing supply is the decline in household size. This trend, which can be found at local, state and 3 ...~ 4 I I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I national levels, is primarily the result of declining birth rates and i ncreasi ng proporti ons of one-person househol ds. Tab 1 e 1 ill ustrates thi s decline in household size in Salina: Table 1 HOUSEHOLD SIZE Salina, Kansas 1960 1970 1974 1975 1978 1980 Average Househo 1 d She 3.14 2.93 2.76 2.71 2.68 2.54 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census -- 1960 and 1970; U.S. Bureau of the Census (preliminary estimate) 1980; Pol'k Survey -- 1974, 1975 and 1978. Although there has been a steady decline in the past, this trend will probab ly not continue i ndefi nite ly into the future. Increasi ng bi rth rates will probably result in the eventual stabilization of household size and perhaps a slight increase. For the purposes of this section, household size in 1980 for Sa 1 i na wi 11 be assumed to be 2.54 persons per househol din accordance with the unconfirmed estimate of the U.S. Bureau of the Census. . AGE-SEX PROFILE Many community facil ities and programs -- schools and elderly housing, for example -- are designed for a specific segment of the population. For this reason, it is helpful to examine the age structure of the community and compare it with the age structure of the state and the nation. The general trend in age compos it i on at the nat i ona 1 1 evel has been toward a steadily older population. This is due to increases in longevity and decreases in the birth rates. Although birth rates have recently started to increase again, the nati ona 1 popul ati on wi 11 conti nue to "age" as 1 ong as the bi rth rate stays below the replacement level. The composition of the Salina population can be compared with that of Kansas and the United States through the age-sex pyramids shown in Figure 4. Essentially, all three are very similar to one another with only relatively mi nor devi at ions between them. Sa 1 i na has a sl i ghtly hi gher proporti on of its popul at i on in the younger and 01 der age groups than does the United States and a sl ightly lower proportion in the middle age groups. This can probably be attributed to the somewhat higher birth rate and lower death rate Salina has experienced as compared with the nation as a whole. Similarly,. Salina has a higher proportion of its population in the younger age groups and less in the middle age groups than does the State. Kansas and Salina have roughly equal proportions of elderly population. Again, the differences are most likely attributable to the relatively high birth rate in Salina. I-- I -..;-: ~..' ,', ;". ~., ....:, ': -,-<, - - - - - . - 3' ,.~ . - - ~. - - - ~- . ._ - _- - - I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I SALINA KANSAS Fi gure 3 POPULATION PYRAMIDS, 1970 109876'43210 o I 2 3 .. , , 7 8 9 10 PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION 10' 8 7 , , .. , .2 I 0 o I .2 5 .. , e 7 8 , 10 PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION UNITED STATES 109 , 7 6 , .. 5 .2 I 0 o I 2 3 .. , II 7 . II 10 PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Census 5 2000 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Over time, the age structure of the Sa 1 i na popu1 at i on wi 11 undoubtedly change. These changes are difficult to predict accurately; however, Figure 4 shows the approximate age structure for the years 1990 and 2000. The most important trend,will be the aging of the "baby boom" children of the Fifties and Sixties. Since this generation was followed by a sharp decline in birth rates, they will continue to represent a bulge in the age structure which wi 11 move up the age pyrami d as they grow 01 der. As thi s generati on moves into the child-bearing years, the proportion of children in the population will increase although not to "baby boom" levels. This increase will be primarily the result of the large proportion of the population in the child- bearing age groups rather than any rapid increase in birth rates. Figure 4 YEAR 1990, 2000 POPULATION PYRAMIDS Salina, Kansas 1990 8165432 I 0 012345878 PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION 81& 543 2 I 0 012345678 PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION 6 --;; ni '. . ..' ,.... I.. '~,...'~! I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I POPULATION PROJECTIONS Since the turn of the century, the population of Salina has grown stead- ily in every decade except the 1960' s. During that period, the closing of the Air Force Base resulted in a population decrease of 5,488. This pattern of decline continued through the early 70's, but since 1972 the City has grown steadily. Figure 5 illustrates the historical population data. Figure 5 HISTORICAL POPULATION TREND Salina, Kansas 40,000 50,000 30,000 . .!! i ;; " :. 20,000 10,000 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ! ~ N ~ . ~ ~ , . ! ! ! ! ! ! Vear Source: Kansas Statistical Abstract; 1980 U.S. Bureau of the Census estimate. Unfortunately, the unusually high population in 1960 compli~ates the process of extendi ng the historical popul ation trend into the future. The reactivation of Schilling Air Force Base in the 50's and its deactivation in the 60's are two events which had an enormous impact on the population of the City, but which are not likely to be repeated in the future. Thus, to avoid basing estimations of future popul ati on on di storted data, the foll owi ng projections will assume a 1960 population midway between the 1950 and 1970 populations. In addition to census data, there are three other sources of population information which are more current. The most useful is the count of dwelling units taken during the recent existing land use survey. There are 17,161 dwelling units in the City. In their 1980 preliminary count, the U.S. Census estimated 5.4% of these units vacant. This, leaves 16,234 occupied housing units. Multiplying the number of occupied dwelling units by the estimated 2.54 persons per household results in a 1980 population estimate of about 41,000 persons. This estimate appears to be reasonable given the population information from the Kansas Board of Agriculture annual census and the Polk Survey which shows fairly rapid growth since the mid 70's. 7 " I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I As noted at the beginning of this section, population projections are not the result of an exact science. For that reason, three projections were prepared using different methodologies for the purpose of comparison. All three are based on U.S. Census data with the modification discussed above and with the addition of the 1980 population estimate. The first method of projection is referred to as a "linear regression." Thi s method assumes that the popul at ion of a city, averaged out over along per,iod of time, will grow in equal increments which will define a straight line when plotted on a chart. Using historical data, the equation of a line is determined which best describes past population growth, and then this line is projected into the future. For Salina, this method describes past popula- tion growth quite accurately and projects a year 2000 population of 51,500. The second method of projection, "curvilinear regression," is similar to the first method. The difference is that this projection assumes that the popul at i on of a city, averaged over along peri od of time, wi 11 defi ne a curved line when plotted on a chart. As with the first method, historical data is used to determi ne the equat i on of thi s curve wh i ch then is extended into the future. For Salina, this method projects a year 2000 population of 58,665. The major weakness of these two methods is that they assume that populations grow according to a mathematical formula and thus do not allow for adjustments or changes in the components of population change. Fi gure 6 POPULATION PROJECTIONS Salina, Kansas . sopoo .. -. - II Linear Regression 5cpoo IIIIU"II..II Curvilinear Regression - - - Cohort Survival ~ <4OpOO :; ;; "- ~ 30,000 20,000 o . ~ o ~ ~ PrOjected ~ Historical Vea' Source: Bucher & Willis. ~ g ~ o o o N o ~ ~ The final projection uses the "cohort'survival" analysis. This type of forecast begins by dividing the population into 5-year age groups or 8 I I I I I I II I I I I I I II I i I I II i I I I "cohorts." For each 5-year time period into the future, each cohort is "aged" by subtracting the number of persons expected to die and by adding or subtracting the number of persons expected to migrate in or out. A new 0 to 4 year old cohort is created for each time period representing the projected number of bi rths. For each age cohort, the number of persons expected to "survive" each 5-year time period and the amount of migration during that period are determined using age-specific rates. Thus, this method arrives at projections of future population by accounting directly for all three components of population change -- births, deaths, and migration. The weakness of this method is that the assumptions of birth, death and migration rates are subject to change. For Salina, this method projects a year 2000 population of 58,100. Of the three methods, the cohort survival analysis is generally more ac- curate for this type of population forecast, and it results in a projection broken down into age groups which is more useful for planning purposes than simply a total popul ation figure. For these reasons, the most probable projection for the purposes of this Plan is the cohort survival anlysis. The specific population projections through the year 2000 are given in Table 2: Table 2 PROJECTED SALINA POPULATION 1970 (Actual) --- 37,714 1980 (Estimate)-- 41,000 1985 ------------ 47,480 1990 n_ 50,470 1995 --- 54,000 2000 --- 58,100 Source: Bucher & Willis SUMMARY Salina has grown steadily since 1900 except for the decline of the 60's caused by the deactivation of Schilling Air Force Base. This decline ended in the early 70's and since that time, the City has shown consistent popu- lation increases. The age structure of Salina is similar to both the State and National age structures. Household size in Salina, consistent with the National trend, has been declining steadily. Of the three projections discussed, the cohort survival analysis rep- resents the most probable forecast. Using this method, the population of Salina in the year 2000 is projected to be 58,100 persons. 9 II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ECONOMIC BASE I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ECONOMIC BASE An economic base analysis is an important component upon which future sect ions of the Comprehens ive Pl an wi 11 be based. It is a key i ndi cator of the current and future vitality and well being of Salina. In addition, the economic base reveals characteristics of a community which may affect future land use needs, public facilities, and growth potential. In general, Salina has a relatively strong economic base. This is some- what surprising given the negative impact which the deactivation of Schilling Air Force Base had on the local economy in the 1960's. Salina has been and continues to. be a regional center for wholesale and retail trade, transportation and services. Over the past decade, however, the economy of the City has been fur:ther d i versifi ed by major expans ions of the manufacturing sector. LABOR FORCE Despite the loss of population from 1960 to 1970, the Salina labor force actually increased in size. This growth is shown in Table 3. Of special significance is the increase in the female labor force of nearly 100 percent from 1950 to 1970. This is due in large part to a steady increase in the female "participation rate", defined as the percentage of the working-age population which enters the labor force. The relatively low 1960 participa- tion rate for males is due almost entirely to the large number of military personnel in Salina at that time. Table 3 LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION Salina, Kansas 1950 1960 1970 MALES Population 14 VIars of 9,351 13,854 11,806 Age a nd Over Civilian Labor Force 7,504 9,226 9,421 Participation Rate 80.2% 66.6% 79.8% FEMALES Population 14 VIars of 10,617 15,613 14,317 Age and Over Civilian Labor Force 3,154 - 5,813 6,293 Participation Rate 29.7% 37.2% 44.0% TOTAL Population 14 VIars of 19,968 29,467 26,123 Age and Over Civilian Labor Force 10,658 15,039 15,714 Participation Rate 53.4% 51.0% 60.2% 1In 1970 this measur~ of the total available labor pool was changed to "Population 16 Vears of Age and Ove rU . Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. 11 12 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Total employment, in absolute numbers, has also grown over the same period. In fact, total employment in Salina from 1950 to 1970, shown in Table 4, increased at more than twice the rate as did employment in the State of Kansas. Although the increase in employment from 1960 to 1970 is quite modest, it is surprising there was any growth at all considering the popula- tion decline during that period. Again, the increasing participation of women in the job market is apparent. From 1950 to 1970, female employment increased over three times faster than male employment. Compared with the state, Sa 1 i na has experi enced the trend of i ncreasi ng female employment sooner and to a greater degree. Table 4 LABOR FORCE EMPLOYMENT 1950 1960 1970 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent SALI NA 10,217 14,394 14,949 Male 7,159 70.1% 8,865 61.6% 9,089 60.8% Female 3,058 29.9% 5,529 38.4% 5,860 39.2% KANSAS 707,621 783,877 852,313 Male 534,390 75.5% 539,494 68.8% 538,092 63.1% Female 173,231 24.5% 244,383 31.2% 314,221 36.9% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. A breakdown of the labor force by occupati on is shown in Table 5. As woul d be expected, there have been substantial changes from 1950 to 1970. All categories have increased in absolute numbers from 1950 to 1970, except for farmers and farm laborers. Re 1 ati ve proportions have also changed in several cases. Professional. and technical, clerical,.and service workers are categori es whi ch experi enced proporti ona 1 increases. Categori es whi ch ex- perienced ~ignificant losses are managers and administrators. sales workers, craftsmen and foremen, and transport operatives. I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Tab 1 e 5 LABOR FORCE BY OCCUPATION Percent a e of Total Em 10 ment Salina Salina Salina Saline Co. Kansas U.S. Occu ation 1950 1960 1970 1970 1970 I9fO" Professional/Technical 10.3 13.3 15.0 14.5 14.3 14.8 Managers/Administrators 14.7 12.3 11.3 11.2 9.4 8.3 Sa1 es Workers 12.8 11.0 8.9 8.3 7.5 7.1 Clerical/Kindred Workers 14.6 15.0 18.7 17.5 16.6 18.0 Craftsmen/Foremen 15.5 14.6 13.9 14.0 13.3 13.8 Operat i ves . (except Transport) 7.9 6.7 7.9 7.7 9.7 13.7 Transport Operatives 4.5 3.9 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.9 Laborers (except Farm) 5.5 4.1 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.5 Farmers/Farm Laborers 1.3 0.7 0.7 4.0 8.2 3.1 Service Workers 9.9 12.0 14.4 13.8 12.0 11.3 Private Household Workers 2.0 4.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. When Saline County is compared with the state and the nation, it is pos- sible to identify those sectors of the Salina economy which are most domin- ant. The categories in whi ch Sal i ne County has proport i ona lly more workers than the state and the nation are managers and administrators, sales workers, and service workers. This is indicative of Salina's position as a regional trade center.. Those categories in which Sa1 i na is proportionally lowest i nc1 ude operatives and transport operati ves. Thi s suggests a re1 at i ve 1 ack of manufacturi"ng employment, although recent i ndustri al development has probably narrowed this gap. EMPLOYMENT BY SECTORS Perhaps the best indicator of the economic base of a city is employment. Table 6 shows .the trend in employment patterns for Salina from 1950 to 1970. This trend is somewhat distorted by the activity at Schilling Air Force Base in the 1960' s, as noted earl i er. Those sectors which gai ned proport i ona lly during this period were manufacturing, services and government. Those sectors which lost proportionally were construction, transportation, communi- cation and utilities, and wholesale and retail. 13 Table 6 EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR Salina, Kansas 1950 1960 1970 Percent Percent Percent Emp 1 oyment of Total Employment of Total Emp 1 oyment of Total Agriculture 167 1.6% 145 1.0% 200 1.4% Mi ni ng 21 0.2% 24 0.2% 32 0.2% Construction 896 8.8% 1,316 9.1% 1,228 8.2% Manufacturing 1,192 11.7% 1,480 10.3% 1,872 12.5% Transportation, Util ities and Communication 1,167 11.4% 1,215 8.4% 1,082 7.2% Whol esal e and Reta il 3,380 33.1% 4,329 30.1% 4,191 28.0% Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 475 4.6% 647 4.5% 739 5.0% Services 1,863 18.2% 3,176 22.1% 3,437 23.0% Government 953 9.3% 1,834 12.7% 2,168 14.5% Not Reported 103 1.0% 233 1.6% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Table 7 EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR Percentage of Total Emp 1 oyment 1970 1979 Saline United Saline United County Kansas States County Kansas States Agri cu lt ure 4.8 8.8 3.7 3.1 6.5 3.6 Mining 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 1.3 1.0 Construct ion 8.2 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.0 5.0 Manufacturi ng 12.3 17.4 25.9 20.8 19.6 22.6 Transportation, Utilities and Communication 6.9 7.6 6.8 6.6 6.5 5.6 Wholesale and Retail 26.8 21.8 20.1 28.5 22.3 21. 7 Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 4.8 4.7 5.0 3.4 4.5 5.3 Serv ices 21.1 18.3 18.2 19.7 16.3 18.4 Government 14.8 14.2 13.5 12.0 18.0 16.8 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Kansas Employment Securities Division. 14 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Table 7 compares Saline County with Kansas and the United States, and shows the most recent data available on employment by sector. The most striking differences between 1970 and 1979 are the substantial increases in the manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade sectors. Coupled with this are sizeable declines in agriculture, construction, and mining employment. Although the remaining sectors declined proportionally,- they increased slightly in actual numbers. Compared with the state and the nation, Saline County has proportionally more employment in the construction, wholesale and retail, and services sectors. It has proportionally less employment in mining, finance, insurance and real estate, and government sectors. The dramatic increase in manufacturing employment from 1970 to 1979 bolstered what once was a weak spot in the Salina economy. Relative employment in manufacturing is now nearly equivalent to state and national ratios. On balance, the analysis above~ indicates that the Salina economy is grow- ing steadily and becoming more diversified. As an example, total employment in the county increased more than 35 percent from 1970 to 1979. Salina has maintained its historical emphasis on services and wholesale and retail trade, indicating that it still serves the function of a regional center for north central Kansas. However, recent increases in manufacturing employment are bringing a far better balance to Salina's economic base. . INCOME An additional indicator of the Salina economy is income. Personal income not only impacts the standard of living, but can also effect future growth of various sectors of the economy, particul arly retail trade and services. Figure 7 illustrates the growth in estimated disposable income per capita for Saline County. Oisposable income includes all sources of income and benefits minus all taxes. Although income has risen sharply through the 70's, once this has been adjusted for inflation, the increase is less significant. This is particularly true of the period since 1976 during which the local popula- tion experienced a slight decline in personal income. For the past decade, income in Salina has been roughly equivalent to State and national levels. In general, average per capita income in Salina has been just slightly below the national average which, in turn, has been slightly below average per capita income for the State. 15 .. 6,000 - ii. .. 0 "- Actual GI ll. GI E 5,000 0 '" C GI :0 .. U> 0 Q. 4,000 U> Q "tl --- --- GI - Adjusted for .. .5 Inflation in - 1970 Dollars U> w 3,000 0 '" ... <D CIO 0 .... .... .... .... CIO .... !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! !!! Year I I I . . . . . I .. . I . I I . I . . Figure 7 ESTIMATED DISPOSABLE INCOME Saline County 7,000 Source: Sales & Marketing Management, Survey of Buring Power, various years; and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of La or Statistics. TRADE AREA Due to its relatively large population as compared to surrounding cities, Salina has historically captured a substantial portion of the retail trade in the north central section of Kansas. The Salina trade area, for major shopping goods, is indicated in Figure 8. In the future, the City of Salina is expected to continue to serve as a regional center for retail activity. 16 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I . ~ f,' -- rfaD.l.~oos:'b\ NeIS'o~l~ Oak- ~" [81 ,Al.undril~ ltPol/ell Harbine ~~ Ellis ..."',,""......"" ~ ..~ iiAf\,;Kllf\; Macon ~, ' , ....:;.:: ~.. _ . i Hebron ~ r Ill36 Jansen ~ 71;;...8Iue Spnnls 6 Buretl !! ~I' " It'tt'''R'ed' -"Cowles ".. ,'..' , oNora 2 136.., ,Gilead 'l-,Gladslo~e ~airbUryt;. iller <0 Wymore l' llbert~ 4p'a Blooming- F 4 RUSkin'~, Deshl~r ~~ ~d' II' 112 136 Ion ranklin.2", Invale Clou , "i'i? 24'" ~ ...... ~,Th~mllson 8 n leD Odell' JS\- ~ C~ , R' t IBoblwlck I,' ~d' WIllIams 8 15) Steele ~ 8 8"-"'0" '-" 'aponee ~~ver on:; . GuideQ . 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'7 'i':lnl!ton~ I ~ Ce ter ~". - ,hJ ,,' !, 148 " ~ ," '-...../ WrtervllI --,. \. I "0'1 '\ '1 ,Of '~- ewe 'us "'!I". ~~,.-. IIH'I Bt. Ra Id " ,~,,' ,,,,, J"_-j I I ''1, - H"'''~ I','m,,' ~t cUf P %' oS-To C,,",.lIr ~G ~'''-l--:'' . i ,,," '!' R.nd.lI~ ',",'. ',-- --"-::--18,"",L --1- -. ';;'1,.~ n" I' ~arlan ~'!~, - -1-JamE'!s 33 Concordia Chltofl, ~"' WA10,",'E ;; 'i J 9 lp t - :1~ ]28 ~ - I 'tow~' "A ~Vtnlnl 1\(\.9J . ~~~~~E Sf, '" or 1:S C.wkel ," ?-- " ! mesl _ , Mayd~y SIAH LA" ~ \~ - 8' C,ty z3f \.14 SEOtIS': 9 !l . "'~ Q5 r-'~ PA,," ~o _ Ill~'nel- I N'b\ I ,2' J' ~ .. Elder Beloit ~"'e If -~i -~---:' Clay Gleen '~ OISbUti'l"~ N weSlj ~ .1. Bloomi-Ili~ on OSbor.~ne I ~' '''--'-1 Jj - Ashem~d' I G' _ @l ~ ~ 2429 "1;,- 'C",ent,e 17 , I T17 ~"' j ,.I '_ _,r' - SImpson ""--~ asco -~,('l - Idana - leo .lIrdv lie I ~~~~E ,..~.~ <l' III ,__..-----., ",,0- ',' ,.. Miltonvafe-:- 1., :'--- Iila ..,~~l(, ~ 99 I', I .r' i 'I I "1! I". '::,'./e." ,,-",,"\j " I I'" 24 I Tipton , , ' _ iif4l\ 7'\, __._; . r I,!.' -Rile;:l:~24~ 0/jsr l. NO:l~l _c.-L I 1. ~ i ..:v~ 1, ,.-""-" Delphos ..., ~akhill' ~ke <) Keats.. \~Z4 ill .... __ --.I cay",l, I Hunter. 'Y "'- <'l I r.i@---"l, I ~ 281 ': "'l" ~- L N Longford ~ 0) I' I Eureka: lake ..'I8\-- '" N"om. 1\ r --.:; '-' ~'I' ... '- '~,." "'" ' M hallan ",.., I ASIIGr~____.L.!J'''fl'''dl ~\-,;"... Wells ~ -- Industry Mil ~ , r It /~lan , I "~' Ada'- _...r Upland ~forl,,-' _-:: 1177 . Wi'll , Luray ,J ..? -- L. 64 ..... Minneapolis g:9r' ,~~ ~CII~~ f,-.-':::':'::;;';'-'1 -. Iley/ O~deJ1 14 . .,p.~radl::: ~ I' ~~' ~Il ::_'C..!Oenmarl( ,~ $ ~ LH~i"A j 'i Y ~., 14.. "~Alm. l ...1 (18 ~, Uncoln I I 106 ,'A~I.. 23 ' 18 ' L . ',33 30 Tescott.. T , "--I 2.0 . J . t' urport I \ u...asl, 0 ,--' u' ilO.' .'. senn"'[Jnl!to,n a mage (15,7 , ,,<:> unc:~on - m " Vesper Shady B '1 '-...../... '). C' . ..Sylvanl Bend _,everly " f~lver l!."o .. 23 '..J4otlVJ)el1;i (C~:;:- Ity 57 ngeram I Grove ",,'" We'itlalt _ I I L~c,;' 81[ I Ent..rll~e .30 .a I "", - -->>" Glendale _r: - .?"" <l<l.. Alta Vista usse, II ,'"-..... -,::::'- '" " 70 ...- \5''',"'' Abilene "!f'-.. ~~~, ' ,,,,,!:=:_~rll~~ .. I BunbrHill I ~ ,~~ ~ New ,'1 b'-~:: lHf 0)1,.... -. 4 ,Jr" "I 1~~l':"-iJi.. H,~vul." 7 Cd"'~"_ '4~: N.. Wh:le~OWlgllt. - ~ I ~ .. '70 , ,..... II ~~~ I' ~ Navarr"" \"y'4 -------~.,,- 2. ; m O'"""'I.,~' 7' ..."", a ma' ~ ' r,; lictoria ~ ~IWIISOn.3&, Black. \4'\ J]56 B,rookv~ lS'\ 7 K Holland n WOodb:T'n'l lalime ~,'>!! ' . , I I Wol~ I /Icarnelro'}~r. 11\ '{:' r Ment~~P ~.~, Par.ker_ -".. CounCIl \'\lLW' ') Smolan~ 0.0" Gypsum Dillon Hope .,. 149 vllle Grove ", ~' ~". .I It! 4" 0 18 I ElIswort "l Kanopohs { ". --..:::..I 25 # levan 215 ;Jfeifer ~ 1 .. '_."" ~ANOPULI; (f." A. . Carlton EtmtH~eringt,on b~ i56r ~ Bu! I I "v ~ 0 P'~K /0 '" ssarla ~ ) ...---....,. Galatia ',1< 16 I RE~. Falun - ~~S'-- . lost ,Wilsey Holyrood" ___ _ ~....,;~~~ lIndsborg Blldleport 15 ~Imgna Splln .,"_,=--=- Oiam~nd ;; Dunlap ~ -=-~ '- J! 1 "' "( 4).. Roxbur Burdkk Spnngs ~ 26 (4\' 5 Redw'nl ICJal1 torrain,"". Geneseot TMarquette l~'~~ ~ 1- ii: Ta.,.,- 171J - .. Arne Ol':r. ...L r."\ 81 Me PIl~RS';O" Durham on Qlmlll ~ Hoisington il'R"i'" Frederick~,b CrJwford < STArr ... - ~ lincolnville SI"". ~ D~' ...-f'" ~ co," D .."m'~ -." .. .i50l. imke:a ~Heiler 231 i:~r:.:~e~~ '__!III ,. i~_ _~ ~,IIIIIlIIlIi:.i- r. ~~.......~ 'City SO I S'l' 0 \ 2 ." ".@ -) G~ va I:iiiJOn . _'.hi," . ,,, Elmd. ~'e CIlASE Ply" '~.~ II FONI 151 Ie, l~ Windom / 20,-.... M G t B d " . .s,sr' n ar)On c rea en of. I " _~ c" '~50 25 "':': . ottonwo __ .It.,"", ..~. J56' Ellinwood " hase 29 Conway"'\,;; Mc.p,,1herson HiIIsboro 20'" '1-, :::~[ Falls m-"' + ~6~'''''' ~ I Cedar Clements d - ., 31 Lyons It4 'Elyria .- a P' t Bazaar p~"'NE[ee . illS-un om ..tJ....-. . S~~ ')..~_f':: ;. _ Ra;~nd Alden ---u- Inman -.., -, ~~~~~ -1:';1 AUlnt~.. FlorenceJ -"< 171. .." ~ Pawnee Rock Sterli g rrj ~ 28 J50 ' ~ ~~~~~Id 35 Radium Nickerson ';3 BUlller..lrai\). p d wonsevu~'- , '119r .. ~.. eabo y 71-_~-- '-...../ Hudso if-J ~ ~o:r ..JMedora Hefston~ Watton Bur~ "'. .. ~ ,..~~,..~ ~iiTl .~ ~ t1UTCHINSON Newton's e Etblnc ;----'~~ ; Saint~ I _ 20 + 3!5 ,//l, Cassoday John i , J ~ I 3 ~ SOU III '1"'"'",0 50 ; ~ Ol2en:rafl,- / Lapland D.II~~n (' Plevna Parlridge"- HutchlnbOO . Hatstud Whlltwller '@)., .' /, 20 # ~~'ffO;d' ~ ~ 5 d . k 1_', 196 ~otwin "'~ )re ....ell ~~, .... Abb-x,ville(';ll '.', ,',' , Qfi ... -~- e gWI( M I ""'" ed ;'" , ~~ . , SALINA TRADE MAP AREA SOURCE: 1974 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN ~ NORTH 17 Figure 8 SUMMARY Salina has improved its economic position substantially, particularly over the past decade. The size of the labor force and total employment have both increased over the past three decades due in part to increased female participation in the job market. Salina has a larger proportion of its employment in the trade and service sectors than does either the state or the nat i on and a somewhat lower proportion in mining, finance and government. The manufacturing sector has increased its employment sharply during the past decade to a point where it is roughly equi val ent to manufacturi ng employment at state and nat i ona 1 1 evels. Per capita income has risen sharply throughout the 70' s. However, once this has been adjusted for inflation, the increase is much more gradual. To rai se the 1 eve 1 of personal income, future efforts at attract i ng new em- ployers could be targeted toward those commercial and industrial ventures which pay above average wages as opposed to minimum wage. With its position as a regional trade center and its recent growth in the manufacturing sector, Salina should continue to experience a healthy growth in its economy; at least equivalent to state and national levels. Of parti- cular importance to the long-term well-being of the City's economic base is the diversification trend of the past decade. The more diversified the eco- nomy becomes, the less severe the impact will be of periodic fluctuations in demand for the products of individual employment sectors. Thus, future eco- nomic development programs should continue to expand the range of industries, businesses and services which locate in Salina. . 18 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I EXIST I N,G, bA,N,t><.YrS'E -. ..:,',',:.'-,>':,:' ~WS,\~,;:,:_;:,~:~~;~'~li,S'~:;l:~k,,-li:d::.-.J.'!.~;0.2;;" I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I EXISTING LAND USE MAN'S USE OF LAND The use of 1 and in a community is not a random process. Rather, many distinct variables influence the way a given piece of land is used. These widely disparate factors vary from economics to traffic patterns to soil conditions to politics. In turn, the factors are continually being modified as the use of individual parcels change. Viewed as a whole, the use of individual pieces of property forms a pat~ tern of land use which in several ways describes the character of the com- munity. This land use pattern has an impact on and, in turn, is impacted by a wide range of community-wide factors. These include the capacity and area of public utilities, the delivery of municipal services, the quality of the natural environment and the degree to which it is amenable to urban develop- ment, and the appearance of the community. There is, then, a complex inter- relationship between all the elements which characterize a community and the use of land in that community. Assess i ng the exi st i ng 1 and uses wi 11 ass i st in i dent i fyi ng many of the characteristics of the City of Salina. It will help to explain where the cit i zens 1 i ve and work, how they obta i n goods and servi ces, and where they seek recreation. It will aid in analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of the community. Final1y, the pattern of existing uses wil1 be a starting point in the process of determining the future land use within and around the City. LAND USE INVENTORY The land use inventory is a current identification of the uses of land throughout the study area. It is presented in both graphic form as a map and tabular form as an acreage calculation. The land use inventory is not a plan, but rather a portion of the necessary data which comprises a plan. To keep the plan current, this inventory should also be kept current. This can be accompl i shed by peri odi c 1 and use surveys or by updati ng the map and adjusting the inventory calculations as new building permits are issued or tax records are changed. By keeping the land use data current, the City can always assess where it is in relation to its Objectives and goals as outlined in the Comprehensive Plan. A detailed land use survey was conducted for Salina and the surrounding study area in March, 1980, by the Salina Planning Staff. This detailed information was aggregated into the following categories: 1. Residential a. Single-Family Dwellings b. Two-Family Dwellings c. Multi-Family Dwellings d. Mobile Homes 2. Parks and Recreation 3. Public and Semi-Public 19 4. Commerci al 5. Industrial 6~ Highways, Streets and Alleys 7. Ra i 1 roads 8. Agricultural or Vacant These categories can be defined in the following manner: 1. Residential: That land which is occupied by one or more dwelling units, including accessory buildings, the primary use being for sheltering individuals, families, or groups of persons. Examples: single-family residences, duplexes, apartments, mobile homes. 2. Parks and Recreation: land use for both active and passive recrea- tional activities. 3. Public and Semi-Public: land or buildings occupied by agencies of the government or by religious, educational or civic groups, exclud- ing lands used for recreational purposes. Examples: schools, churches, cemeteries, city buildings, fire stations. 4. Commercial: That land occupied by buildings or merchandise, the pri- mary purpose of the land being a location for the wholesale or retail sale of goods and services. Examples: grocery stores, clothing, car sales and service, farm equipment sales. 5. Industrial: That land occupied by buildings, materials or equipment, the primary use being for storage, transportation, or manufacturing of a product. Examples: manufacturing, construction yards, heavy equipment or material storage, warehousing. 6. Highways, Streets and Alleys: Rights-of-way for highways, streets and alleys opened for use as public thoroughfares. 7. Railroads: land for railroad rights-of-way, train storage, switch- ing, and freight and passenger depots. 8. Agricultural or Vacant: land on which none of the above uses are performed. EXISTING lAND USE The results of 'the land use survey for both the City and the surrounding study area are presented in Table 8. The total area of Salina is approxi- mately 19.4 square miles, of which 63.8 percent is developed, 18.2 is occu- pied by the airport, and 18.0 percent is used agriculturally or is vacant. The largest single category of land use is residential, accounting for' slightly less than one-fourth of the area within the City limits. 20 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I F_~ -I..~ .",' . .i" "'-';"Iti.., ..'. ,"f, .....,;.. I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Table 8 .' ;; EXISTING LAND USE Salina, Kansas 1980 Salina Percent of Area Developed (Acres) land Remaininq Study Area Percent of Area Developed (Acres) land Total Percent of Area Developed (Acres) land Residential 2,942 23.7% 721 0.89% 3,663 3.9~ s; n9le-Family 2,460 19.8% 666 0.82% 3,126 3.3% Two-F amily 248 2.0% 1 249 0.3% Multi-Family 128 1.0% 128 0.1% Mobile Homes 103 0.9% 54 0.07% 157 0.2% Parks & Recreationl 795 6.4% 438 0.54% 1,233 1.3% Public & Semi-Public 792 6.4% 1,139 1. 40% 1,931 2.1% Corrunerci a 1 572 4.6% 119 0.15% 691 0.7~ Industrial 453 3.6% 353 0.43% 806 0.9% Highways & Streets 2,181 17.5% 2,715 3.33% 4,896 5.2% Ra il road R-O-W 204 1.6% 301 0.37% 505 0.5% TOTAL OEVELOPEO LANO 7,941 63.8% 5,788 7.11% 13,729 14.6% Ai rport 2,254 18.2% 2,254 2.4~ Agri cu.l tura 1 or Vacant 2,232 18.0% 75,686 92.89% 77,918 83.0% TOTAL 12.428 100.0% 81,474 100.0% 93,902 lOO.O~ 1Salina figure includes 137 acres of abandoned runway adjacent to the Municipal Golf Course and the Bicentennial Center and Fairgrounds in Kenwood Park. Source: March, 1980, windshield survey conducted by the City of Salina. Not surprisingly, the vast majority of the land outside the City 1 imits is either used agri culturally or is vacant. Thi s category accounts for nearly 93 percent of the land in this area. The next largest land use cate- gory is for highways and streets, accounting for 3.3 percent of the area. The remaining uses occupy only small percentages of the total area. Excluding the City, the unincorporated portion of the planning area includes approxi- mately 127 square miles. LAND USE CHANGES To better understand the current distribution of land uses, it is helpful to compare it to the 1974 land use distribution. This comparison is shown in Table 9. Developed area has increased by 2,129 acres, although the total area of the City has increased by only 1,433 acres. The difference is at- tributable to the decline in the area occupied by the airport. This decline probably represents former airport buildings which are now being used indus- trially or for other public uses. All of the remaining categories showed an increase in area, although there was only a marginal increase in the railroad and agricultural and vacant categories. 21 I .. I OJ III \C...... \0 "" a. <: OM.....O 0 0 . . . . lIlO III 0'> 0000 N N ..... 0'> M oT ..... N 0 OJ..... .. oT ~ ..... L<'> N N L<'> 0 ..... CO CO .. OJ . . . . . . . I 0'> U "- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N ..... ..... ct: ~ I oT -0 .... OJ ~ 0'> LOLOCOM I ..... ~ . . . . ~ ~ ~ 0'> oo:::t'......OO ." 0'> M ..... M ." OJ . ~ . . . . . ..... 0 ..... 0 ..... 0 0 <: ~ ~ ~ ~ '" ..<: I u III '" OJ Mf"-.. .-tLO OJ .. O"l LO CO o::T ..U CO M..... CO ." L<'> ." ." .... 0'> O'>M ct:ct: .... .... N .... CO ." ..... N ....CO ." ..... M ..... ..... L<'> ..... .... oT I ~ .. N ..... OJ III a. <: 0 0 o 0..0 O"'lC'''') III 0 III CO LOLO NN CO .... CO ..... .... ." L<'> .... OJ..... .. L<'> . . . . .... .... 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V') I 22 I !.., P:" I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I [I The change from 1974 to 1980 in the percentage of developed land included in each land use category shows the change in the relative distribution of 1 and withi n the Ci ty. The bi ggest change was in the s i ngl e-family resi den- tial category which had substantially less land proportionally in 1980 than it did in 1974. This indicates a slight shift in housing patterns toward higher density uses. The two-family, multi-family, and mobile home categories have all increased proportionally. In addition, there was a proportional increase in the amount of land used for public and semi-public, industrial, and commercial categories. This change indicates either a faster than average growth in the number of individual uses in each category or an unusually high increase in the amount of land used by each individual use, or a combination of both trends. The final analysis of the difference in land use between 1974 and 1980 is the change in the amount of land per 100 persons in each category. This is a measure of change in the demand for apart i cul ar 1 and use and of change in the density of development. For example, the decline in acreage per 100 persons in the single-family category could be the result of either a decline in the proportion of the population which lives in single-family homes (lower demand) or smaller lot sizes (lower density). Given the proportional in- creases in two- and multi-family housing noted above, the former explanation is more probable. Overall, the developed area of the City occupies 2.11 acres more land per 100 persons than in 1974. Those categories which increased most rapidly are two-family and multi-family residential, public and semi-public, industrial and commercial. Only single-family residential and railroad uses declined. LAND USE COMPARISON A second way of putting the distribution of land uses in Salina into perspective is to compare it with other cities of similar size. Such a com- parison identifies distinct characteristics, assets and deviations in the land use pattern from that of the average or typical midwestern city. Table 10 is a deta il ed 1 and use compari son with the "typi cal city" havi ng a popu- lation of between 10,000 and 60,000. It must be emphasized that the statistical comparison with a "typical city" is primarily to determine where the City of Salina deviates from other similar-sized communities. The "typical city" statistics are not necessarily goals to be achieved but are included simply for the purpose of comparison. Such a comparison is a descriptive tool which leads to a better understanding of past land use demand and development patterns which, in turn, may have implications for future land use decisions. 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(/)r-:::I- So.. >, or- 0..0..... 011'O::::l +J U ra'"" E or-.r- 01''- _a::~~4-~;';:u ra .... s... I OJ uttJ <lJtt:l+JtO or- +J ClJ po- c: c: c: QJ c.. a V1 C"l.,.. QJ or- U >,~ OJ c::,..... U r- s- f- ro...c:'.... ttJ..... n:J::::l = Ol-V) v> co v; 0 ...... NMq- LOV) I .~ '" '" :E Ql ~ +> . >" ,-", o.~ ~ Ql~ +>.~ "'3 u "" +> "''- "'Ql u~ ",u >'" CX) -0 "'-0 "'''' '" I I o +> I +> '" Ql U '" .,..., -0 '" I I ..... ..... . ..... N I I I I I o Z ex: -' -' "" f- o f- I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I In general, Salina has a land use distribution which is roughly similar to the land use distribution of comparable cities. Salina does, however, use more land per 100 population than average~ This means that Sa1 ina either uses land less intensively than the typical city or serves as a regional cen- ter for the surrounding area to a greater than average degree. In this case, although it is probable that both factors have contributed to the additional land used by Salina, its position as a regional center is probably the most significant. A more detailed examination of the land use distribution by category fo1- lows: Residential: Approximately 37 percent of the developed land in Salina is used for residential purposes; a percentage almost identical to that of the typical city. However, the composition of this residential land is significantly different than in similar cities. The vast majority of the 1 and is devoted to si ng1 e-family dwell i ngs. Hovlever, the percentage of developed land used for single-family resi- dences in Salina is substantially less than in the typical city. Con- versely, Salina has several times more land devoted to duplex development than is average. Multi-family residences occupy -a typical percentage of total developed land, but this amount is significantly above average in terms of acreage per 100 persons. As noted earl ier, the percentage of developed 1 and occupi ed by two-family and multi-family units increased between 1974 and 1980. Single-family development is found in nearly all areas of the community, generally in large, homogeneous tracts. The older sections of the City, however, tend to have a more heterogeneous character. Two-family dwell- ings are located in a very scattered manner although there is one large tract of duplexes near the airport originally built as military housing. Multi -family units are 1 imited, for the most part, to moderately-sized tracts located predominantly in the eastern and central sectors of the City. Parks and Recreation: Salina uses substantially more land for parks and other recreational uses than does the typical city. However, this amount includes 137 acres of abandoned runway adjacent to the Municipal Golf Course and the Bicentennial Center and Fairgrounds in Kenwood Park. Thus, in terms of usable park- space, Salina is only slightly above comparable cities. Unfortunately, the existing parks are not evenly distributed across the City. Instead, the majority of park space- is concentrated along the Smoky Hill River between Crawford and North Streets. Public and Semi-Public: Salina has a typical proportion of its land in this category. However, for the purposes of this comparison, the airport was not included in the public and semi-public category in order to avoid a sizeable distortion of the entire analysis. If it were included, Salina would have substantially more land in this category than the typi- . cal city. There are two concentrations of public and semi-public uses. The first is immediately east of the airport and the other is around the periphery of the Central Business District. The remaining uses in this category are distributed fairly evenly across the community. 25 26 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Commercial: Compared to the typical city, Salina uses significantly more land for commercial purposes. This reflects, at least partially, Salina's position as a regional trade center for a considerable portion of North Central Kansas. The most intensive concentration of commercial activity is in the Central Business District. However, there are several other notable commercial districts. Perhaps the most extensive area of commercial activity is located in a 'strip along Broadway Boulevard beginning at Pacific Avenue and running south to Crawford Street. Other commercial nodes are located at Ninth Street and the Interstate 70 interchange, at the intersection of Crawford and Ohio, on Ohio Street between Cloud Street and Wayne Avenue, at the intersection of Ninth and Magnolia, and at Crawford and 1-135. Industrial: Salina has slightly more industrial land than do comparable Midwestern cities. Although the proportion of industrial land is roughly average, the acreage per 100 persons is significantly above the average. The two largest concentrations of industrial uses are at the airport and immediately north and northeast of the Central Business District along the railroad tracks. Streets and Highways: As with all cities, the amount of land devoted to streets and highways is substantial. This is a result of the widespread use of the grid pattern for local streets and of small block sizes. Increasing the size of blocks and the use of cul-de-sacs and curvilinear streets can substantially reduce the amount of land occupied by streets; thus resul t i ng in a more compact city. The amount used in Sa 1 i na is somewhat less than the average amount used by comparable cities. Although it is not reflected in the land use distribution of the City, Sa 1 i na is located at the intersection of a major east-west hi ghway (Interstate 70) and a maj or north-south hi ghway (I nterstate 135-Hi ghway 81). Railroads: Salina has more area for railroads and accessory uses than is typical. The City is served by three railroad lines: the Union Pacific, the Missouri Pacific, and the Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe Railroad. The major concentration of rail lines is in an east-west corridor im- mediately north of the Central Business District. SUMMARY The amount of developed land in Salina has increased substantially since the 1974 land Use Survey. This increase includes every land use cate90ry although some categories grew more quickly than others. The land uses that increased most quickly were public and semi-public, two-family dwellings, and industrial uses. Those that increased most slowly were single-family dwell- ings and railroad rights-of-way. The land use distribution of Salina is similar to that of comparable mid- western cities although Salina uses roughly 12 percent more land per 100 persons than is typical. Salina has substantially more land devoted to two- family dwellings, parks and recreation, and commercial uses than is typical. Somewhat less land is used for single-family dwellings than in comparable cities. I I I I I I I I I I I I I 'I I I I I I Due to the strong probabil i ty that the future wi 11 bri ng even hi gher energy costs and increased restri ct ions on muni ci pa 1 budgets, the recent shift toward higher density housing types appears to be an asset. However, the degree to which existing conditions and trends should change in the future is largely dependent upon community goals. 27 ,.....;"::..;. . '. . . . . . . . . . I I . I ' I I ,I ENVIA,0:NMEN;7[AL CHARACTEI;U:Sillil,~!:$ - . ',.-'.. . . .... .... " ..,-/ '.' .....:-.--:.'...., I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS In order to make intelligent decisions regarding the location, intensity, and type of future development in the Salina vicinity, it is necessary to ex- plore the possible 1 imitations placed on urban growth by the environment. Although most developmental limitations can 'be overcome, the enormous addi- tional cost in terms of both public and private investment makes this a very cost-inefficient alternative. Instead, it is preferable to encourage growth in those areas which can best accommodate urban development and discourage growth in those areas with the most severe limitations. The folly of ignoring environmental constraints has been demonstrated re- peatedly in the past decade. From the massive destruction of property caused by mudslides in California to the almost total loss of acquatic life due to industrial pollution of the Hudson River, examples of the improper use of the natural environment clearly underscore the consequences of disregarding its 1 imitations. Although such obvious and spectacular examples are not very frequent, nature reacts to man's insensitivity in numerous albeit more subtle ways. Foundation cracks, flooded basements, broken pavement and failing septic tank systems are all indications of potential' conflict with the envi- 'ronment. By avoiding problem areas, the safety and convenience of the public can be increased and the public and private costs associated with develop- ment can be minimized. This section will elaborate on the physical and environmental character- istics most relevant to development in Salina and the surrounding area. In addition .to discussing the limitations of the environment, the assets of the environment which should be protected will be explored as well. Most of the characteristics discussed in the text below are shown graphically on the En- vironmental Characteristics Map. FLOODING One of the most obvious and potentially most destructive environmental 1 imitat ions to development is f1 oodi ng. The most common method of defi ni ng areas with a significant probability of flooding is known as the 100-year f1 oodp1 ai n. These areas have a l-i n-IOO or greater chance,of flooding each year. It is preferable to avoid urban development in the flood plain en- tirely. However, if development is necessary, it is helpful to draw a dis- tinction between the two parts of the floodplain: the f100dway and the flood-fringe. The f100dway includes the center channel of the river or creek and car- ries the majority of the floodwaters. It is defined as the center portion of, the floodplain which can carry the runoff from a 100-year storm with an increase in the e1 evat ion of the floodwaters of no more than one foot when the remainder of the floodplain has been filled in. Under no circumstances should development be allowed in the f100dway; it would only create addi- tional flooding problems elsewhere. 29 PERMITTED Fill . . . '. . . . . . I . I . ~ [ [ [ [ Figure 9 FLOOD PLAIN FlOOD FRINGE FLOODWAY -I FLOOD FRINGE FlOOD PROOFING FILL Off FLOOD PROOF LEVEl 100 YEAR FlOOD LEVEl 000 000 CHANNEL FLOOD PLAIN PROFILE The flood~fringe is the area between the floodway and the outer edges of the floodplain. This area can be developed but only if carefully considered precautionary measures are taken. These include building on enough fill to raise the lowest floor one foot above the 100-year flood elevation or suffi- ciently "flood-proofing" the building itself from the infiltration (hydro- static effects) and movement (hydrodynamic effects) of the floodwaters. In Saline County, the first phase of a recent Flood Insurance Administra- tion study has determined the area within the 100-year floodplain and the dividing line between the floodway and the flood-fringe. This information is preliminary, however, and may change slightly before being finalized. The confluence of several rivers results in a relatively large amount of floodplain in the Salina area. The Saline River to the north, Mulberry Creek to the west, and Dry Creek to the southwest all have fl oodpl ai ns that are generally one to two miles in width. Smoky Hill River, which runs along the eastern edge of the Ci ty, has a somewhat narrower fl oodpl ai n due to the steeper land east of the river and the levee along much of its western edge. In addition to these large floodplains, there are numerous smaller ones paralleling the minor creeks and drainageways. Despite being surrounded by floodplains on several sides, the City itself has only a few areas inside the 100-year flood boundaries. This is due 30 -'",. :/.,<'''','- '> . I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I primarily to a system of levees which protects the main body of the community from floodwaters. However, where the City has expanded beyond the levees, there are several flood-prone areas. The northern end of the airport and the area north of Euclid Avenue are the largest floodplain areas within the City limits. Although not inside the formal floodplain boundaries, many areas within the City do flood after heavy rains due to poor drainage and flat topography. The flooding could be minimized, however, by implementing existing drainage studies. DRAINAGE An environmental problem closely related to flooding is the accommodation of storm water runoff. Urban development alters the natural drainage pat- terns by changing the location of drainageways and decreasing the amount of land available to absorb precipitation. In the case of Salina, the drainage situation is complicated by its location at the bottom of a drainage basin. As development proceeds up the basin, there is a strong possibility that the additional runoff caused by new development will exceed the capacity of exi st i ng storm water facil it i es. Thus, the impact on the drai nage system should be carefully analyzed when new development is being considered. Three of the primary alternatives for storm drainage are enclosed, open- paved and open-unpaved drainageways. Enclosed systems will be necessary at road crossings or in unusual topographic conditions. Overall, however, ex- cessive initial costs of these underground enclosed pipes and culverts will preclude the wide use of such a drainage system. Rather, the City should utilize open natural drainageways wherever pos- sible. A system of natural open drainageways will reduce development costs and allow for more on-site absorption of storm water runoff. Wide grass- 1 i ned channels reduce both the quantity and speed of runoff waters. Sites and subdivisions should be developed with open drainage easement of suffi- cient width to carry at least a 25-year flood for minor drainageways and a lOO-year flood for major drainageways. The maintenance of major drainageways should be the responsibility of the property owner. Major drainageways, however, which carry the runoff of a large section of the community, should be maintained by the City. The City might further consider requiring all new development to detain excess runoff which results from change in the use of the land. The rate of runoff from a site would have to be calculated before and after development and a system devised to accommodate the increased amounts of water leaving the site. De- tent i on ponds, parki ng lot pondi ng areas, slow 1 eak i ng underground storage tanks, porous paving and rooftop storage are among the techniques to detain storm waters. Although these detention systems usually increase development costs, the cities requiring them have noted considerable benefits. New development has not resulted in increased runoff on already overtaxed storm drainage systems. "downstream". As discussed above, this is. particularly important in Salina where a majority of new development may aggrevate these existing drainageway systems. In additi on, because of such detent i on systems, city ma i ntenance costs have not increased and city expenses for downstream drainage improve- ments have been greatly reduced. 31 32 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I There are, however, 1 imitations to the use of these detention systems. The detention of even small floods can require substantial land areas. Level areas which will require mechanical pumping systems to remove ponded water are less suited for detention systems. Finally, such systems will be useless if a ,rain from the previous morning or day fills the system to its design capacity. The use of these storm water detention systems must be evaluated care- . fully. Where storm waters can be carried quickly and effiCiently to.a nearby major drainageway or stream, detention systems are not necessary. When new developments cause probl ems on the exi sti ng drai nage 1 i nes, these storage systems should be considered. SOILS The soils in the Salina vicinity vary widely in their classification although silty loams and silty clay loams are predominant. As might be ex- pected with such a wide range of soil types, some are conducive to urban de- velopment, others are better suited to agricultural production, and still others are not part icul arly sui ted to either use. Gi ven the soil types in the Salina area, the specific characteristics judged most relevant are soils with a high potential for shrink-swell, soils designated as prime agricul- tural land, and soils which can accommodate sewage lagoons and septic tanks. These characteristics are discussed below and indicated on the Environmental Characteristics Map. Shrink-swell refers to the tendency of a soil to increase or decrease in volume with changes in moisture content. Soils with high shrink-swell poten- tial, generally those high in clay content, expand as they absorb water. This expansion can cause substantial structural damage to both roadways and build- ing foundations. Areas with high shrink-swell potential should be developed with special precautions taken in regard to foundation design and site preparation. The soils in the Salina vicinity that have shrink-swell problems are most prevalent west of the City and south of the Saline River. However, this does not mean that this problem is nonexistent in the remainder of the study area. Irregularly shaped pockets of soils which have a high potential for shrink- swell can be found in all areas. Rather, it means that this problem will be somewhat less frequent north, east and south of the City. Prime agricultural land is one of the most important natural resources of the Midwest. Yet thousands of acres of this resource are needlessly con- verted to urban uses each year. Instead, prime agricultural 1 and should be identified and development discouraged in those areas whenever feasible. The Soil Conservation Service has defined prime farmland as including those soils which: a. have rai nfall or i rri gafi on suffi ci ent to promote adequate mo~ sture for the commonly grown crops in seven or more years out of ten; b. have a ph measurement favorable for growing a wide variety of crops; c. have no water table that interferes with crop growth; ""rl .""~' "r,'~: ,.,. ""~;, .. c ..",..._' " I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I d. have no sodium or salinity problems; e. are not flooded frequently during the growing season; f. have no serious erosion hazards; .' g. . are suffici ently permeable that waterl oggi ng does not occur for ap- preciable periods during the growing season; and h. have a surface containi ng few rock fragments that interfere with tillage. - In the Salina area, prime agricultural land is abundant. It can be found in substantial quantities on all sides of the City. Generally, the prime agriculural soils cover large areas interrupted only by narrow strips of non- prime farmland. In many cases, these narrow strips correspond with drainage- ways and, consequently, may suffer from erosion problems. The largest area of non-prime agricultural land is in a strip running northwest from the City, roughly paralleling the Union Pacific Railroad line. - In those areas not served by public sewer systems, septic tanks or sewage 1 agoons may be the only economically feasible alternative. Unfortunately, many of the soils in the Salina vicinity have severe limitations for these types of disposal systems. Septic tank lateral fields require well drained, permeab 1 e soil free from 1 arge stones or boul ders. Sewage 1 agoons requi re dry, easily compacted soil with low permeability. Soils with a high organic matter content and those with 1 arge stones are not suitable. Excess i ve slopes, bedrock near the surface, and frequent fl oodi ng cause problems for both sewage lagoons and septic tank systems~ Within the p1anning-area,- the soils are far more likely to be suitable for sewage lagoons that they are for septic tanks. The soil characteristics favorable for sewage lagoons are very common and fairly evenly distributed. The soils which are suitable for septic tank systems are evenly distributed as well, however, these soils occur relatively infrequently and are generally small in size and isolated in location. BEDROCK The location of bedrock near the surface presents several problems for urban development. The most obvious problem is that excavation becomes much more difficult. Bedrock classified as rippable can be excavated by mechani- cal means such as a backhoe. Hard bedrock, however, often requires blasting to excavate. A second problem is that bedrock generally creates severe limitations for septic tank and sewage lagoon disposal systems. In the Salina area, bedrock within six feet of the surface is limited ex- clusively to the upland areas. In the river valley, the upper bedrock layers have been eroded away and the remaining layers have been covered with thick alluvial deposits. The rippab1e bedrock consists primarily of shale and poorly cemented sandstone and is found generally two to four feet below the surface. These types of bedrock are most prevalent on the steep upland slopes north of the Saline River, east of the Smoky Hill River, and north of Mu1 berry Creek. The hard bedrock consists of limestone and well-cemented sandstone. The limestone is located predominantly on hilltops and is generally at least four feet below the surface. The sandstone is typically found on moderate to 33 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I "'''''-~_''~''''''''.-7'_'-';;:'~''''''''-'''~'''''''''_'~__'_'''_'''''''~_~'~~_~""""""~~~."'~'~"."'^"""^,?rr"-"";,,,,,~,,-,"'__. steeply sloping hillsides and is often only one to two feet below the sur- face. Areas likely to have hard bedrock near the surface are located north of the Saline River and east of the Smoky Hill River. The Environmental Limitations Map indicates the specific location of those soils which have bedrock problems. TOPOGRAPHY The topography of an area becomes a limitation to development only when. the slope of the land becomes too steep to safely accommodate normal struc- tures. For. general urban development. it is recommended that areas with slopes exceeding 15 percent be avoided. This will minimize the probability of building or foundation damage due to soil slippage or erosion. It will also make it easier to construct the types of structures which require flat sites or shallow grades. Fi gure 10 shows the generally recogni zed slope limitations for various types of development. Figure 10 SLOPE LIMITATIONS TO DEVELOPMENT I GENERAL URBAN USES GENERAL COMMERCIAL CONVENTIONAL HOUSING . SEPTIC FIELD SYSTEMS ALL-WEATHER URBAN ROADS COMMERCIAL CENTERS I .1 . AIRPORTS RAILROADS INTERSTATE HIGHWAYS , I PERCENT GRADE 0 . I 5 . . 10 15 20 SOURCE: U.S. Geological Survey 34 ~:: _, -,' _':_,"'--_,",,''''~-:-'--1' ,..."~"..:~ . .,- '-_'F'_._~ -",-."",, .~'''-'''''' I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I , I ~- The majority of the City is located in a broad alluvial plain formed by the confluence of the Saline River, Mulberry Creek, and the Smoky Hill River. As a result, much of the Salina area is nearly flat. Even in those areas which are not flat, slopes rarely exceed the recommended limit of 15 percent for conventional housing and general urban development. For this reason, the less severe limitation of 10 percent is shown on the Environmental Character- i stics Map. Even with the more modest standard, the areas with steep slopes are rela- tively few in number and small in size. Generally, these areas are located ~in clusters adjacent to the river plains. The most extensive clusters of steep slopes are north of the Saline River and west of the airport. The areas of steep slope nearest the City are immediately east of the Smoky Hill River; however, they are isolated in location and thus pose only minimal problems. TREE COVER Where possible, it is.preferab1e to preserve significant stands of trees. This will not only improve the visual appearance of the Salina vicinity but will also provide badly needed shelter and food sources to wild animals. In addition, tree belts can reduce wind velocity and provide cooling shade. An inventory of these types of landscape characteristics can assist in the selection of future park sites. The overwhe1 mi ng1y predomi nant characteri sti cs of the tree cover areas around Salina is their very linear nature. In nearly every instance, these areas consist of very narrow strips along streams, roads, or fence lines. GROUNOWATER Groundwater becomes a limitation to urban development whenever the water table is within six to ten feet of the surface. High water levels make exca- vations and the pouring of foundations more difficult. It may also necessi- tate a special foundation drainage system to prevent infiltration. The depth of the water table was determined using the static water levels in 12 wells monitored by the State Water Resources Board in 1979. The water levels range from as little as 10 feet below the surface along the Saline River northeast of the City to over 150 feet deep southwest of the airport. In general, the groundwater is closest to the surface in the low lying river vall eys, typically 15 to 20 feet below ground 1 eve1. Thi s means that very little of the developable land in the Salina vicinity is likely to experience groundwater problems. In addition to a normally high water table, some soils have a tendency to form perched water tables. This occurs when a nearly impervious sub-surface layer of soil collects water draining through the surface soils. This re- sults in a periodic pool of water below the surface yet well above the normal water table. Soils prone to perched water tables can be found in several parts of the Salina region. Although difficult to locate precisely, they are generally located in the upland areas east, west and north of the City and in 35 36 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I the river plain near the point where the Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers meet. These soils are 1 i kely to remai n wet throughout the spri ng and even into the summer whenever artificial sources, such as the watering of lawns, recharges the perched pools. MINERAL RESOURCES In recent years, increasing demand for decreasing supplies of natural re- sources have made obvious the need for conservation. For this reason, it is important to identify the mineral resources in the Salina area so that urban development does not prematurely interfere with thei r extract ion. It wi 11 also serve to point out areas where there is potential conflict with adjacent land.uses. A 1978 survey of oil and gas production in Kansas by the State Geological Survey indicated that all or parts of four oil fields are located within the study area. The combined output of these four oil fields was sl ightly over .75,000 barrels per year. Although two of these fields are in the extreme southwestern corner of the study area, the remaining two are along the eastern edge of the City. This creates a potential, if not already existing, land use confl ict. . Another mineral resource which is currently being extracted in the Salina vicinity is sand and gravel. There are currently two sand and gravel pits in operation, both are located along the Smoky Hill River southeast of the City. Areas with bedrock near the surface, discussed above, may be potential sites for addi t i ona 1 quarryi ng operati ons. For exampl e, 1 imestone and sandstone deposits southwest of the City, although not currently being extracted, could be convenient sources of aggregate for construction and paving. These areas are not directly adjacent to existing development and thus do not constitute an immediate land use conflict. However, the potential for confl ict exists if scattered development is allowed in this area. WATER AND SEWER SYSTEMS In addition to the natural environment, certain aspects of the man-made environment. serve as limitations to future urban growth as well. Public water and sewer systems, for example, are often prerequisites to many types of urban development. This is particularly true for areas with soils un- suited to private sewage systems or with low-quality groundwater, such as some areas around Salina. Yet the restrictions on municipal budgets preclude the extension of public systems in a random or unorganized way. Instead, the impact of capital improvement expenditures can be maximized if the existing systems are carefully analyzed and future growth pl ans coordi nated wi th expansions of the water and sewer systems. The current water system consists of a distribution system supplied by a water treatment plant south of the downtown and six water towers located in various parts of the City. The Environmental Characteristics Map shows the exact locations of the water plant and towers, as well as the water mains greater than 12 inches in di ameter. The current system appears to have sufficient storage and distribution capacity to accommodate expansion in the near future into any of the potential growth areas. I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I The current sewage system is considerably more complex. There are two treatment plants: a small one at the airport and the primary one northeast of the City. The collection system depends upon numerous lift stations to pump the sewage through force mains to the treatment plant. This type of a system is necessary because of the City's flat topography which makes the more com- mon gravity flow system impractical. Where sufficient vertical drop exists, the gravity system is considerably 1 ess expens i ve than the 1 i ft stat i on system. In Salina, it may be preferable to encourage future development into those areas which can be served by existing lift stations or into more steeply sloped area where a 1 arge amount of 1 and can gravity flow to a s i ng1 e lift station. HISTORICAL STRUCTURES . It is important to retain ties to the past in order to gain an adequate perspective on the present and future. For this reason, future urban devel- opment and redevelopment should not endanger sites or structures of histori- cal significance. In the Salina area, two structures and one archaeological site are included on the National Register of Historic Places. The two structures are the John H. Prescott House, 211 West Prescott; and the A.J. Schwartz House, 636 East Iron. The archaeological site is an Indian burial grounds east of the City near Highway 40. SUMMARY There are numerous characteristics of the environment -- both assets and deficiences -- which should be considered in evaluating new development. The location of Salina at the confluence of several rivers and streams combined with the f1 at topography of the area has resu1 ted in a ri ng of f1 oodp1 ai ns around the City. The largest areas of floodplain are to the north and west. There are several 1 imitations and asssets related to the soils in the area. Of particular importance are prime agricultural land, soils with high shrink-swell potential, and soils favorable for sewage lagoons and septic tank systems. Bedrock is located near the surface in several places within the study area. It is most common on hillsides and hilltops north and east of the City. The water table is nearest the surface in the 1 ow-1yi ng ri ver va 11 eys where it is typically 15 to 20 feet below the surface. It should not pre- sent development problems in the major growth areas. The topography of the area is generally flat in the river plains bordered by moderate slopes to the north, east and west. Areas of excessively steep slopes are generally infrequent and small in size. There are several oil fields in the study area as well as two sand and gravel pits. These are environmental resources; however, they may conflict with adjacent land uses. 37 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I . I FUTURE LAND USE I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I FUTURE LAND USE FRAMEWORK FOR FUTURE PLANNING There are three prerequisites for almost every form of planning: 1) the current situation must be understood, 2) the way the various factors being planned interact with each other must be known, and 3) the goals to be achieved must be clearly stated. Land use planning has the same three prerequisites and they must be addressed prior to the formulation of the fu- ture land use plan. First, existing conditions must be understood. An examination of these conditions will not only identify current assets and problems in the com- munity, but will indicate future trends which must be accommodated or modi- fi ed. Previ ous chapters of thi s report have exami ned these condit ions and trends with respect to population characteristics, economic development, existing land use, and environmental constraints. Second, accepted planning principles or "rules of common sense" must be recognized. These principles help explain the functions and relationships between land uses and, in doing so, suggest techniques for efficient future land use planning. A summary of these principles will be discussed below. Third, the desires and attitudes of the community must be identified. These are necessary to assure that the plans are designed to truly meet the needs and enhance the 1 ifestyl es of the local ci t i zenry. The speci fi c de- ve 1 opment pol i ci es 1 i sted in the foll owi ng sect i on are intended to refl ect community attitudes toward the physical development of Salina. These three elements, then -- eXisting conditions, planning principles, and local attitudes -- can be incorporated to yield a future land use plan for Salina. It is important to note here, however, that these elements are as much the plan as the future land use map which follows. The map is actu- ally just a generalized long-range perspective of future land use. In prac- tice, as individual decisions need to be made, the conditions, principles and policies discussed throughout this plan should be consulted and considered with more weight than the summarized land use patterns on the map. To re- peat, it is not the intent of the future land use map to establish the proper use of each and every parcel of land in Salina. This map is merely meant to give an overview of the total community's future development; Since these individual elements play such a significant role in deciding rezoning, subdivision and development issues, it must be emphasized that the Comprehensive Plan is a valuable resource in the decision-making process only as long as the pl an is kept current. The inventory of both man-made and natural characteristics must reflect all changes to the community. A current tally of existing conditions in both graphic and tabular form will not only allow for an up-to-date analysis of needs but will also allow for a measure-. ment of success at achieving formerly stated goals and objectives. Just as characteristics of the City change, so do principles and poli- cies. As technology changes or as our attitudes toward work, shopping, learning, or leisure change, so must the standards on which we make various 39 40 I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I land use decisions. Whereas a separation between residential and industrial uses may be a current principle of urban design, changes in construction techniques or the price of commuting may actually justify the encouragement of such mixed uses. Likewise, a policy of avoiding the use of private sewage systems within the City limits may change if such systems become more effec- tive. Finally, it should be noted that sound planning is incrementally achieved. This means that, although this report addresses needs far into the future, the City must take care in separating immediate needs from long-range needs. For example, the future land use plan indicates several areas of ex- pansion for each land use category. All of these areas, however, are not necessary to ful fill current demand. Some of them, in fact, may not be needed for 10 or 15 years. Opening all of these areas for immediate develop- ment would result in the inefficient scattering of development and the need to provide expensive extensions of municipal facilities and services prior to their being economically justified by existing development. A step-by-step approach, then, is the best way to implement long-range plans in an afford- able manner. COMMUNITY PLANNING PRINCIPLES As urban development and land use interrelationships have become better understood, a seri es of p 1 anni ng pri nci pl es have been developed to guide urban growth. These principles are designed to minimize land use conflicts and enhance the liveability of the community. In order to fully understand how these pri nci pl es were deri ved and how they shoul d be app 1 i ed, it is necessary to briefly explain their basis. One of the primary reasons planning and zoning were created was to con- trol what economists refer to as "land use externalities". The use of land often has an impact beyond that particular piece of property, and yet this impact is often not included in the property owner's decision-making process because it is external to the efficiency and profitability of the property being used. As an example of land use externalities, a house surrounded by factories has less value for residential purposes than the same house sur- rounded by similar houses. This is because the noise, smoke, and heavy truck traffic generated by the factory are so annoying that the value of the house declines. In effect, it is a cost imposed by the factory owners on the owner of the house. This external cost can be eliminated, however, by separating incompatible land uses and buffering them from each other.. Thus, negative external ities can be minimized through proper neighborhood and community change. Equally important, strong neighborhoods can create positive external i- ties. A shoe store, for example, will generally do more business if it is located adjacent to other clothing and department stores than it will located by itself. The increase in business due to being located in a shopping dis- . trict is an example of a positive land use externality. By minimizing negative externalities and creating positive externalities, a variety of benefits can be realized. Social values can be reinforced, safety and convenience can be improved, psychological stress can be lessened, '~;.1:"''''''':.1>- ;;';" '.'d~":/-(:"l" ',: ,'''''~ Ii, I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I W~;i:~:. and property values can goals, of course, takes sues. be both increased and stabilized. To achieve these more specific guidelines to deal with specific is- ':'~ ! l';~: Some development issues, however, shoul d be analyzed differently than others. In some cases, it is beneficial to approach the issue from the perspect i ve of the i ndi vi dua 1 nei ghborhood; in other cases, the perspect i ve of the community may be preferable. The advantage of this dual scale of an- alysis is that it can be more carefully tailored to the scale of the problem. Neighborhood Design Neighborhoods are in many ways the "building blocks" of the community, so that their strength or weakness directly affects the strength of the commun- ity as a whole. In addition, the neighborhood corresponds to the way many people visualize their city and to the level at which several community facilities and services are provided. Thus, the neighborhood, including commercial and industrial districts, is a very important component of urban development. Neighborhoods, of course, vary widely from one to another and extremely different neighborhoods can be equally successful. Thus, it is difficult to specify exactly what the ideal neighborhood should contain. It is possible, however, to point out the general objectives of neighborhood design and the policies which will help achieve those objectives. As primary objectives, neighborhoods should strive to achieve the following characteristics: Imageability - A neighborhood should be easilY identifiable by residents of the community wi th di st i nct edges or bounda ri es separating it from adjacent areas, but without internal barriers that tend to break it up into sub-areas. Without imageability, it be- comes more difficult to organize support for neighborhood causes and to prevent the encroachment of incongruous uses. Cohesiveness - Individual pieces of property throughout the neighborhood should be reasonably consistent in terms of the type and intensity of land use, and the size and siting of buildings. This does not mean that neighborhoods need to be completely homogenous, but rather that each property should make a posi- tive contribution to the character and liveability of the neighborhood. Integration - A neighborhood should be well integrated with the remainder of the community. This means that it should be close to support services and facilities that reinforce the liveability and convenience of the neighborhood, and that it should have safe and efficient access to other areas in the City. These neighborhood objectives suggest numerous planning principles which wi 11 be outl i ned below. When the pri nci pI es of nei ghborhood des i gn are applied to an actual project, there may be several alternatives which are equally good. One such neighborhood layout is shown in Figure 11 as an "ideal" neighborhood diagram. Unfortunately, it is generally impossible to directly apply "ideal" solutions to real situations. Thus, this "ideal" neighborhood diagram should not be used indiscriminately but should instead be modified to meet the constraints of reality. 41 Figure 11 THE NEIGHBORHOOD CONCEPT SHOPPING CENTS:': , , " APARTMENT De:VB:~PMe:NT :! , , EL.EMI!:NTARY SC....OOL PARK-PLAYGROUND , , , .. , , . . . . .. . . '. e " w . " . . , , . , , . . , . , . , '~.. . ... COLLECTOR STR),;ETS ~ "' t " - < ~ ~ " RIVl:ir ~ -~ ::-~-.:::.---"- -......,~.._ i;:;;: All.TER1AL ~TREET The Salina City Commission, after recelvlng a recommendation from the Citizen's Advisory Committee, approved neighborhood boundaries in 1979. These boundaries define eight neighborhoods as shown in Figure 12. The edges of these neighborhoods are major streets and highways, the Smoky Hill River, the Union Pacific Railroad tracks, and the City limits. 42 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I .". ,. ;...,., i "'.f.'" \.r.... I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ,',; ),:~~ Figure 12 SALINA NEIGHBORHOODS . I MAGNOLIA . . . . . ........" SCHILLING Community Design Although analysis at the neighborhood level is valuable for some issues, others should be approached with the entire community in mind. How residen- tial, commercial and industrial districts should be related to each other and to those uses which are not clustered into neighborhoods is as important an 43 n_~ 44 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I issue as the structure of the neighborhoods themselves. No part of the com- munity is autonomous; thus, it is cruci al that the connections between the various parts be well conceived and implemented if the liveability of the community and the convenience of the citizenry are to be maximized. Again, it is possible to state general objectives that the community as a whole should strive to achieve: Legibility - It should be possible for the residents of Salina and even visi- tors to recogni ze and understand the pattern of development in the City. If this pattern can be visualized, it will be sub- stantially easier to locate various land uses and remain oriented to all parts of the communi~y. Effi ci ency - The vari ous nei ghborhoods and 1 and uses shoul d be di stri buted and organized in a manner which maximizes accessibility while retaining sufficient clustering of similar uses. This will tend to mi nimi ze travel time and energy expendi tures without sacri- fi ci ng the economi c advantages of 1 ocati ng compl ementary uses together. Diversity - Salina should provide the opportunity for as wide a selection of land uses as can reasonably be accommodated. A wide variety of development opportunities will help ensure that the needs of all of Salina's citizens are being met. It will also encourage a healthy diversification of business interests, housing types, physical forms, and cultural and social opportunities. These community des i gn object i ves suggest several more speci fi cacti ons which are listed below. Taken together with the neighborhood design objec- tives, this dual-level analysis will promote logical, well planned develop- ment decisions. PLANNING PRINCIPLES Both the neighborhood design objectives and the community design objec- t ives can be expanded into more speci fi c statements referred to here as planning principles. These principles outline general relationships between various districts and land uses which, if followed, will improve the devel- opment pattern of the City of Salina. I. LAND USE A. Land uses of differing intensity should generally not be intermixed. Instead, land uses of similar intensity should be grouped together into neighborhoods or districts and, buffered from higher intensity uses. Intensity is a function of the density, unit size, and nature of the use and the amount of traffic generated. B. Residential development should be located and developed in a manner which reinforces the neighborhood structure of the community. Single- family residences, a low intensity land use, should be buffered from higher intensity land uses. At the same time, however, they should include or be adjacent to neighborhood services and facilities such as schools, parks, and convenience shopping. . . "'~":'''~:''''~;Y.~'i;{~'I. ',1,"" I "'. . 'r:,.,:i'.J:, ~ '; ,~:~/. ',:;c- I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Multi-family residences are a somewhat higher intensity use and should, therefore, be clustered 'within a neighborhood rather than scattered at random. They, too, should be reasonably near neighbor- hood support facilities. Multi-family development, in fact, can often function as an effective buffer between single-family resi- dences and neighborhood commercial centers or other incongruous uses. C. Commercial development should be located and developed in a manner consistent with the type and size of market to be served. Conveni- ence or neighborhood commercial centers provide the local residents of adjacent residential areas with basic food and household supplies. These centers are usually developed around a supermarket and occupy five to ten acres. Zoning should be used to carefully control permitted commercial uses, limiting them to only those that serve the convenience shopping function and can be supported by the population of the surrounding residential neighborhoods. The second type of commercial center is generally referred to as the Central Business District (CBD). 'Although it may include neighbor- hood-type services, its primary emphasis should be merchandising goods which require a city~wide or regional market. It should be centrally located within the community with easy access via arterial streets and wi th suffi ci ent off-street parki ng to make the CBD a convenient place to shop. The final commercial area includes those highway or general commer- ci al uses which requi re either di rect access to major thoroughfares or excessively large lots and outdoor..displays. This category in- cludes such uses as automobile or farm implement sales and building supply yards. These uses should be concentrated along a major arter- ial street. However, to avoid the inevitable traffic congestion and accident problems of multiple curb cuts along a heavily traveled thoroughfare, frontage roads shoul d be requi red with carefully con- trolled access points. Landscaping and design controls should govern their development to minimize any negative visual impact these uses might have on the community. D. Public uses should be located in a manner consistent with the sector of the community being served. Those public uses which are neighbor- hood oriented such as churches, schools and neighborhood parks, should be distributed across the community either with or directly adjacent to the neighborhoods they serve. On the other hand, those public uses which serve the entire community should be centrally located at sites with convenient access. Government offices, for ex- ample, should be located in the Central Business District. E. Industrial uses should be located on the periphery of the City where they will not adversely affect other land uses. Proximity to major highways, railroad lines, and airport facilities and relatively flat topography are important industrial site considerations. Preferably, industrial development can be directed into industrial park settings where landscaping controls can minimize the visual impact of these uses. ~ 45 II. I II. URBAN DESIGN I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I [ [ [ A. Neighborhoods should be easily identifiable and definable. In order to reinforce a strong neighborhood structure within the community, neighborhoods, including commercial and industrial districts, should have visual edges or a physical character which distinguishes them from adjacent neighborhoods. Edges usually include rivers, arterial streets, railroads, sudden changes in land use, and obvious topo- graphical features such as hilltops and valleys. In any case, edges should be easily recognizable and relatively precise as opposed to ambiguous and uneven. Similarly, neighborhoods can be visually identifiable if they have a unique and consistent physical character or architectural style. On the other hand, it is preferable to avoid what otherwise might be thought of as an "edge" running through the interior ofa neighborhood. This creates a barrier to internal move- ment and reduces the imageability of the area as a whole. The size of a neighborhood or district should be consistent with its functional need. Neighborhoods vary considerably in size but there are 1 imits which they should not go above or below. A neighborhood which is too small lacks the "critical mass" necessary to really benefit from the clustering of similar uses, and it often cannot eco- nomically justify the separate provision of neighborhood-type facil- ities. In addition, it will suffer severe problems with even being perceived as a neighborhood to begin with. Similarly, a neighborhood which is too large will also have image problems because it will be difficult to visualize the area as a whole. Thus, community resi- dents will begin to think of the area in smaller pieces which hurts not only imageabil ity but also cohesiveness. Where possible, neighborhood and community design should take advan- ta e of h sical landmarks and functionaT focal points. Much like shopping mal s are centered around arge "anchor" stores, neighbor- hoods and entire communities can be oriented around either physical landmarks or functional focal points. This makes the organization of the community easier to understand and aids in maintaining one's bearings when traveling. through various parts of the community. Landmarks are unique physical structures which visually stand out from the surrounding area. Functional focal points are major activ- ity centers to which the adjacent areas relate. B. c. D. Adjacent dissimilar uses should be buffered through the use of appro- priate barriers. Landscaping, fencing, earth berms, and numerous other barriers can minimize the negative effects of dissimilar uses. However, the choice of which type of buffer to use should address the specific problems which exist. For example, where the problem is solely a visual one, dense landscaping would be sufficient. However, if the problem is controlling access or noise, then a fence or earth. berm might be more suitable. PUBLIC FACILITIES A. Public facilities should be distributed and located in a manner which relnforces the neighborhood and community structure. Since municipal 46 '~\rt~.; -."~,:',~,,t.' "f",t~"lo$o;'+\~, t:}~-, I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I '\',::: facil iti es represent a maj or investment of pub 1 i c funds and si nee they are cons i stent act ivity centers, thei r 1 ocati on withi n the com- munity is cruci al and shoul d be c'carefully thought out. On the neighborhood level, schools and parks should be centrally located to provide convenient access and to serve as a functional focal point. On a broader scale, public facilities of City-wide importance should be located at sites with good access and in areas where adjacent uses and the public facility will be mutually supportive. For example, locating City offices in the CBD benefits the businesses because the City Hall will attract more people downtown and it benefits City government because it has convenient access from an area which nearly all residents frequent. B. Streets should be located and organized in accordance with a func- tional hierarchy. There are three primary classifications of streets: local, collector, and arterial. Traffic should be routed onto the appropri ate type of street dependi ng upon its dest i nati on. Movements from one section of the City to another are carried on arterials which ideally are infrequently interrupted corridors de- signed for the smooth flow of large volumes of traffic. Sub-section movement occurs on collector streets which connect residential areas with arterial streets, neighborhood commercial areas, schools, and other higher intensity uses. The lowest level of the system, the lo- cal street, carries the traffic flow from collectors or arterials to the abutting properties. C. Street layout should discourage through traffic in residential areas and encourage compact development. By utilizing curvilinear align- ments for local streets and by providi'ng an efficient network of major streets, through traffic in residential areas can be discour- aged. In addition, the use of cul-de-sacs and larger blocks can reduce the amount of land devoted to circulation and thus result in a more compact City. DEVELOPMENT POLICIES The final prerequisite for future planning is the listing of municipal policies relating to physical development. This represents a further refine- ment of the planning principles discussed previously combined with the goals and aspirations of the residents of Salina regarding the growth and develop- ment of their City. These policies are specific enough that they can be used in the day-to-day evaluation of development proposals. . Although the future land use map is useful as a general guide to future growth, the development policies will prove to be more valuable for decision- making purposes. Their value is that they will remain useful for a long period of time, they are precise enough to be applied directly to devel~pment proposals, and they can be easily updated. As each new development proposal is submitted for review, it should be evaluated by determining its compliance with each of the development policies. Unfortunately, it is almost inevitable that there will eventually be some conflict between a development policy and real-world constraints and oppor- tuniti es, or even between two confl i ct i ng pol i ci es. After the speci fi cs of 47 the situation and the objectives of the policies are fully understood, the conflict should be resolved using the best judgement of the Planning Commis- sion and the City Commission. In some cases, compromise may be necessary. However, it is of the utmost importance that the development policies be ap- p1 i ed cons i stent1y to every development proposal. To keep the development policies current, it will be necessary to periodically review and modify them to reflect changes in community attitudes, lifestyles, and building tech- nology. GENERAL DEVELOPMENT GOAL TO PROVIDE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR CONTINUED URBAN DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AN ORDERLY, EFFICIENT AND ENVIRONMENTALLY SAFE PLANNING FRAMEWORK. OBJECTIVE GI Control the location and subdivision design of new de- velopment in order to minimize initial and future public and private costs. POLICY Gll New urban development shall be encouraged to lo- cate in areas where municipal services and public facilities are already present or where service extensions can be easily accomplished. POLICY GI2 Overzoning should be avoided to prevent a scatter- ing of uses and a reduced marketability of land within the City. POLICY GI3 Streets and utility extensions shall be designed to provide servi ce to the maximum area with the 1 east 1 ength of extensi on. Cul-de-sac streets, shared parki ng, and the clustering of housing units will be encouraged. POLICY GI4 Rural development shall be allowed to occur only on a 1 imited scale to prevent the over1 oadi ng of school, road ma i ntenance and other pub 1 i c facil i ty and servi ce budgets. This rural development will not be permitted to become urban in nature thereby creating urban demands on the City and county. Rural subdivisions shall be preferred to scattered non-farm. residential development but shall be critically reviewed to as- sure a safe and sanitary living environment. POLICY GI5 The cost of required improvements .to a subdivision that are to exclusively serve the property owners of that subdivision shall be borne by the developer or those property owners. POLICY GI6 Curb cuts onto arterial streets shall be kept to a minimum. POLICY GI7 Affected individuals, groups or agencies should be consulted on development proposal s to assure community-wide coordination. POLICY GI8 New developments shall be required to provide adequate street right-of-way for public use. 48 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I . .~ -:",'- /. ": ~,,-..' . .-.' , .:, -', ... ~-, I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I "i, POLICY 619 There shall be proVlslOns for the maintenance of minor dralnageways by abutting property owners. OBJECTIVE 62 Restrict development to areas with few environmental hazards and minimize the loss of natural resources due to urbaniza- tion. POLICY 621 New deve 1 opments sh all be located in areas wh i ch are relatively free of environmental problems relating to soil, slope, bedrock and water table. POLICY 622 Residential development shall be avoided in the lOO-year floodplain. Under no circumstances shall development be allowed in the floodway. POLICY 623 New development shall avoid, where practicable, sig- nificant natural resources including prime agricultural land and mineral deposits. POLICY 624 Increased storm water runoff attributable to new deve 1 opment shoul d not adversely affect downstream propert i es or structures. OBJECTIVE 63 Consider design elements to assure that the character of the community is preserved or enhanced. POLICY 631 Signs shall provide the necessary information to the motorlst or the pedestrian without increasing the probabil- ity of accidents by causing too much visual confusion. POLICY 632 All ,development should be provided with adequate landscaping to improve the aesthetics of the use.. to absorb ad- . ditional stormwater runoff, and to reduce summer surface tem- peratures. POLICY 633 Access to solar and/or wind energy resources should be preserved when considering new development. OBJECTIVE 64 Consider the rezoning (back zoning) of land in accord- ance with the Comprehensive Plan. POLICY 641 Land zoned after the adoption of the Plan and not developed within two (2) years after the land is zoned, shall be considered for rezoning (back zoning) to its original use. A six-month extension may be granted. POLICY 642 Land currently zoned in conflict with the Land Use Plan and not developed within five (5) years after the adoption of the plan shall be considered for rezoning in accordance with the plan as may be revised at that time. A six-month extension may be gr anted. POLICY 643 Land zoned in conflict with the 1974 Land Use Plan, as amended, and in conflict with the current Land Use Plan and 49 not-developed at the time of adoption of the current plan shall be immediately eligible for rezoning in accordance with the Plan as may be revised at that time. A six-month extension may be granted. POLICY 644 In order that planning and zoning policies may be strengthened, it shall be the policy of the City to not con- sider the resubmittal of a zoning request which is essentially the same as the original request within any six-month period. 50 I I 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 I I I I I I I I, I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I :. L_n HOUSING GOAL TO PROVIDE DECENT AND AFFORDABLE HOUSING FOR PRESENT AND FUTURE POPULA- TIONS OF SALINA WHILE PRESERVING EXISTING RESIDENTIAL AREAS. OBJECTIVE HI Recognize and maintain or upgrade the particular resi- dential character of existing areas. POLICY HII Land uses which would be housed in large structures or will create substantial amounts of traffic, noise or odor, shall be separated, either physically or visually, from single-family areas. POLICY HI2 Buffers, either as intermedi ate land uses or as sufficient landscaped areas, shall be provided between residen- tial and either commercial or industrial uses. Residential and other uses may somet imes be buffered from each other by placing them back-to-back rather than face-to-face. POLICY H13 Vacant areas withi n predomi nantly developed res i- dential areas should be encouraged to be developed in a manner that is similar in character to surrounding residential uses. POLICY HI4 Where one project would occupy several previously platted ,lots, replatting should be considered to assure that the individual lots cannot be individually developed and sold, and to allow the City to apply better access and site design controls. POLICY HI5 Adequate support facilities such as parks, schools and convenience shopping areas should be provided for each res- idential neighborhood. POLICY HI6 Nonconformi ng commerci al and industri al uses in resldential areas should be eventually phased out and replaced with appropriate land uses. POLICY HI? New residential developments should be accompanied by covenants which provide for the maintenance of common areas, easements and drainage. OBJECTIVE H2 Encourage the development of a wide range of housing cholces. POLICY H2I The opportunity shall be provided for a variety of residential uses including multiple-family, mobile homes and small-lot housing development. These moderate- and high- density residential' uses shall not be randomly intermixed with single-family residential but, instead, shall be clustered at appropriate locations. POLICY H22 The development of low-income housing and housing for the elderly shall be encouraged in diverse locations across the community, rather than only in a few isolated locations. 51 52 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I , POLICY H23 The rehabilitation of housing in older areas of the community shall be encouraged to provide appropriate housing for moderate-income families. OBJECTIVE H3 Provide adequate amounts of multiple-family housing in suitable locations. POLICY H31 Medium to high density multiple-family projects should be located on a major street specifically designated as a collector or arterial or in the area immediately surrounding the CBD. These developments should be located within one city block of an arterial street to avoid large amounts of traffic traversing single-family areas. Larger coordinated housing projects proposed as Planned Unit Developments, however, should be provided greater location flexibility. POLICY H32 Multiple-family developments greater than two acres in size should be encouraged to use the Planned Unit Develop- ment process. POLICY H33 The site should be able to provide safe access to the adjacent major streets. Smaller projects such as single duplexes should not have direct vehicular access onto arterial streets except in older areas where frontage roads cannot be reasonably required. Larger projects should be provided access via a frontage road, a side street, or through a limited number of shared curb cuts. POLICY H34 The site should be of adequate size to provide re- quired setbacks and off-street parking. POLICY H35 All projects should be within one mile of con- venience-type shopping facilities, within one and one-half miles of a fire station, and, except projects for the elderly, within one mile of an elementary school. POLICY H36 Public sewer service should be available and lines, 11ft stations, and treatment plants should be capable of carry- ing additional anticipated loads. POLICY H37 Public water service should be available and line SlZe and storage faci lities should be capable of providing adequate water pressure and supply. POLICY H3B All medium to high density multiple-family develop- ment shall be located within the City. OBJECTIVE H4 Provide adequate opportunity for mobile home develop- ment in suitable locations. POLICY H41 Mobile homes shall be encouraged only in mobile home parks/subdivisions and shall not be intermixed with other housing types, without strict safeguards. .~,. ; "";'f:';' "'. , < ;';' ," '.' ".'r'-'~ :;, I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I POLICY H42 Mobil e home deve 1 opments, 1 i ke other medi urn-dens- ity housing, should be within one mile of convenience shopping, within one and one-half miles of a fire station, and within one mile of an elementary school. POLICY H43 Public water and sewer service shall be available and be capab le of accommodating the addi t ional load. POLICY H44 Mobile home developments shall be a minimum of 4 acres in size and have a maximum density of 8 units per acre. POLICY H45 Mobile home developments shall have direct access to a collector or arterial street. POLICY H46 Mobile home developments should be provided with adequate landscaping to improve the aesthetics of the use, to absorb additional stormwater runoff, and to reduce summer sur- face termperatures. 53 COMMERCIAL GOAL TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT NEIGHBORHOOD AND COMMUNITY-WIDE SHOPPING FACILITIES EFFICIENTLY DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE COMMUNITY AND ADEQUATE OPPORTUNITY FOR COMMERCIAL EXPANSION. OBJECTIVE Cl Encourage the development of businesses downtown. POLICY C11 The Central Business District (CBO) shall be the prlmary regional retail center in the City. Commercial projects with a regional market may be permitted outside the CBD if there is insufficient area to accommodate them downtown. POLICY C12 The enhancement of the CBD to attract both shoppers and prospective businesses through the development and re- development efforts of the private and public sectors shall be encouraged. POLICY C13 Other compatible and supporting uses such as office buildings, community-wide civic structures and government functions shall be encouraged to locate in the downtown area. POLICY C14 Wh ile expans ion of the downtown sh all be encour- aged, the boundaries of adjacent residential neighborhoods should be clearly defined when considering such expansions. POLICY C15 The character of the downtown should be preserved by maintaining some degree of conformity of design and scale. Structures of local historic or architectural significance should be preserved, whenever practicable. POLICY C16 Office development shall be encouraged to locate in the Central Business District. The number of areas and acres available for office complex development outside of the CBD shall be kept to a minimum. OBJECTIVE C2 Provide areas away from downtown for clustered and coordi nated commerci a1 deve 1 opment for those uses with acreage re- quirements that cannot be accommodated in downtown. POLICY C21 Planned commercial areas shall be provided for large lot users (i .e., lumber yards, auto and farm implement dealers) . POLICY C22 The areas containing uses requiring large land areas shall be located on a major arterial street with careful access controls and sufficient buffers from any adjacent resi- dential uses. POLICY C23 Large lot commercial uses shall be clustered to minimize their impact on surrounding uses and traffic patterns rather than allowed to form a long commercial strip. OBJECTIVE C3 Provide neighborhood convenience shopping adjacent to resldential areas but discourage "spot commercial" zoning. , 54 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I '\~ ,-'".:.<),;..V,,,I ~.:>. . >- i.. '..f.~'..;;y t..";! ~ I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I POLICY C31 Coordinated neighborhood shopping centers or groups of stores whi ch primarily provide goods and servi ces to local residents only, such as grocery stores, pharmacies and laundro- mats, shall be allowed in residential areas provided that they are located on an arterial street and are buffered from sur- rounding residences. POLICY C32 Non-nei ghborhood commerci al development shall be encouraged to locate in other commerci a 1 centers and not in residential areas. POLICY C33 Neighborhood shopping centers should not be larger than 10 acres in area. POLICY C34 The enhancement of neighborhood shopping centers shall be encouraged to attract both shoppers and prospective businesses through the development and redevelopment efforts of the private and public sectors. OBJECTIVE C4 Discourage the expansion of strip commercial develop- ment along the major streets of the City. POLICY C41 Strip commercial development, single commercial uses stringing out along a street, shall be limited to those uses directly serving the motoring public such as motels, ser- vice stations and fast-food restaurants. POLICY C42 Strip commercial development shall be limited to major highway entrances to the City and shall be permitted only limited access to major streets via frontage roads. OBJECTIVE C5 Assure the provision of adequate pedestrian and vehi- cular access and parking at all commercial and employment centers. POLICY C51 Require adequate off-street parking for all new commercial and offi~e development and require buffering between parking areas and adjacent residential uses. POLICY C52 Provide safe and convenient pedestrian access from surrounding residential areas and internal pedestrian circu- lation in all commercial centers. 55 56 I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I INDUSTRIAL GOAL TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT AT LOCA- TIONS WITH SUITABLE ACCESS, ADEQUATE COMMUNITY FACILITIES AND WITHOUT SERIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL OR LAND USE LIMITATIONS. OBJECTIVE II Industrial development shall be located so as to max- imize efficient usage of the public and semi-public facilities necessary for this type of development. POLICY III Industrial sites shall have access to arterial streets; preferably those leading directly to major highways. POLICY 112 In addition to highway access, industrial parks and sites shall preferably have access to ra il road and ai rport facil ities. POLICY Il3 Wherever possi b 1 e, pub 1 i c water and sewer servi ce should be provided. POLICY 114 Industrial development shall be located or designed so as to be afforded adequate police and fire protection. OBJECTIVE 12 Industrial development shall be located so as to minimlze the negative impact on the environment and on other less intensive uses, as well as minimize the costs of development. POLICY 121 New industrial uses shall be separated or buffered from surroundi ng non-i ndustri a 1 uses. Heavy i ndustri a 1 uses shall be located on the edges of the community away from ex- isting or projected residential growth areas and opposite the prevailing winds. POLICY 122 Future industrial expansion areas shall be evaluated in 1 ight of existing soil, slope, bedrock, water table conditions, and flooding conditions. Industrial de- velopment shall not be allowed in areas where substantial, long-term environmental damage will result. POLICY 123 Access should be provided to industrial areas in a manner which prevents traffic through residential areas. POLICY 124 . Industrial uses such as salvage 'yards should be located and screened so as to minimize their visual impact upon the community. POLICY 125 Areas with the public facilities and environmental conditions suitable for industrial development should not be developed for residential or other low-intensity purposes. I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ":"~. ':"j".;>;".~"';""t,.!- _),' ':"''';,0,;' PARKS AND RECREATION GOAL. .. TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE RECREATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR ALL SECTORS OF THE COMMUNITY AND PRESERVE SCENIC OPEN SPACE AREAS. OBJECTIVE PI Provide adequate parks and recreational facilities on both the neighborhood and community levels. POLICY PII Neighborhood parkS and recreational facilities shall be provided within walking distance of all residences. Safe and unobstructed pedestrian and bicycle access shall be provided to these parks where possible. POLICY PI2 Parks and recreational facilities which serve community-wide needs shall be centrally located and have access from at least one major street. OBJECTIVE P2 Provide a wide range of recreational opportunities. POLICY P2I The diversity of recreati onal opportunities shall be expanded to ensure that the. needs of all age groups are being met for both active and passive recreational activities. POLICY P22 Winter recreational opportunities (i.e., cross- country skiing, ice skating, tobogganing, etc.) and indoor re- creational centers should be expanded. POLICY P23 The expansion of private recreational facilities such as bowling alleys and skating rinks should be encouraged. OBJECTIVE P3 Preserve and enhance areas of natural scenic beauty. POLICY P3I Where possible, areas of natural scenic beauty should be preserved through land or easement acquisition or through development restrictions. POLICY P32 Where possible, public access to and enjoyment of areas of natural scenic beauty should be promoted by providing the necessary improvements. 57 58 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I LAND USE ACREAGE NEEDS After recognizing the best pattern of development in the community, the quantity of these land uses needed to accommodate future growth can be noted. In the chapter on existing land use, the distribution of the different land uses of the City was cal culated. Land use acreages per capita were al so tallied and analyzed with respect to comparable cities. To estimate future land use needs, the acreage per capita figure for the "typical" city can be multiplied by the estimated city population for that year. Therefore, if the "typical" city uses 5.7 acres for single-family residences to meet the needs of 100 persons, 400 new citizens would require about 23 additional acres for this use alone (400 x 5.7 acres/100 persons). Before estimating future land use needs, however, it should be noted that the average city's acreage per capita figure might not typify Salina. Like- wise, Salina statistics might be deficient at this time and eventually approach the average. To assure that sufficient acreage for each 1 and use category is reserved, the highest acreage per capita statistic available will be used to yield the probable maximum future land use distribution. Esti- mates of land use needs by 5-year intervals are shown in Table 11. Table 11 5-YEAR INCREMENTAL LAND USE Factor! MINIMUM INCREMENTAL NEEDS 1985 1990 1995 2000 (acres/100) (p=47,480)2 (p=50,470) (p=54,OOO) (p=58,100) Total Residential: Single-Family 5.7 (S) 369 170 201 234 974 Two-Family .6 (S) 39 18 21 25 103 Multi pI e-Family .3 (T) 19 9 11 12 51 Parks & Recreation 1.8 (S) 117 54 64 74 309 Public & Semi-Public 1.8 (S) 117 54 64 74 309 Canmerical 1.3 (5) 84 39 46 53 222 Industrial 1.0 (S) 65 30 35 41 171 Streets & Alleys 4.9 (S) 317 146 173 201 837 TOTAL 17.4 1,127 520 615 714 2,976 IFactor used is highest existing from Salina (S) or typical city (T). 2p=Forecasted population. The land use projections are based on the best available data: historic land use surveys. These projections do not, however, take into account the changing land use needs of communities. For instance, the average commercial acreage required for cities similar to Salina is 1 acre per 100 residents. Twenty years ago, this figure may have been .60 acre, whereas today it may be 1.25 acres. In the future, Salina may use 2.0 or even 3.0 acres per 100 persons. On the other hand, if land and transportation costs continue to II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I '" ....:., " 'v .he. ;., <.'". ,.-'.1" rise at such a rapid rate, land usage may .again follow a more conservative trend. Wi th the 1 ack of knowl edge of future trends, the above hi stori c factors will be used. Acreage needs, however, should be considered an ap- proximation which should always be carefully evaluated with respect to cur- rent national and local market trends. From the above discussion, it becomes obvious that excess land should also be reserved to accommodate urban development which might occur beyond the projections of this Plan. The reservation of these surplus growth areas also provides for a more competitive land market, lowering the possibility of one or several land owners holding exclusive rights to the only designated growth districts of Salina. It must be emphasized, however, that in accord- ance with the policies outlined in the previous pages of this chapter, these surp lus growth areas should not be opened to urban development unt il other areas which are more contiguous with existing development are substantially occupied. These areas, then, should be considered long-range development areas wh ich wi 11 probably not be needed to accommodate the growth of the community until the latter part or beyond the 20-year planning period. As a rule, about two times the required land use needs of a community are held "in reserve". Since it is projected that about 3,000 acres will become developed in the next 20 years, an. additional 6,000 acres, or about nine square miles should be noted for this long-range expansion. FUTURE LANO USE MAP The Future Land Use Map is only a generalized guide to the community's future growth. It is intended to identify the overall land use pattern of each area, the areas of prime growth potential, and the direction of possible future annexations. As previously mentioned, the Future Land Use Map is not meant to identify exact use on a parcel-by-parcel basis. The guide must not be taken blindly, but constantly evaluated with respect to all the policies outlined throughout the Comprehensive Plan. Finally, the guide map, as with the entire plan, must remain flexible, being changed and updated to meet both new policies and necessary changes in land use patterns. The characteristics, principles and policies previously reviewed set out the basis for the configuration of the Future Land Use Map. It is important to emphasize here that development, be it residential, commercial or indus- trial, should not be allowed to fragment to all areas designated for that use. Once an area begins to develop, it should be substantially developed before other areas are encroached upon. Such a policy will,result in a more concentrated land use pattern, helping to minimize the need for util ity and commun i ty f ac il ity expans i on and allow for a more conc i se and eff i c i ent thoroughfare system. In addition, by preventing the scattering of land uses, a great surplus of vacant, unwanted parcels will not be created between dozens of intermittent islands of development. The Future Land Use Map is a long-range projection of the growth of the community. It should be implemented on an incremental basis only. This means that all areas designated for development should not be opened to urbanization at this time. Scattered pOCkets of development should be 59 avoided. Further, the map does not suggest the immediate elimination of all uses not in conformance with its recommendations. Rather, in most cases, these nonconfonning uses should be allowed to continue, but be discouraged from expanding. The Future Land Use Map, then, is a guide for future rezoning. The following is a review of the future land use recommendations by land use category. Res i dent i a 1 The relatively compact residential development of the City should be con- tinued. Ideally, this development would occur concentric to the downtown, the activity center of Salina. Unfortunately, floodplains greatly limit the potential directions for residential expansion. The only practical expansion areas which are contiguous to existing development are south, east and southeast of current City 1 imits. In the next twenty years, it is estimated that about 1,145 acres of land will be developed residentially. About an additional 800 acres of land will be necessary for streets to serve these residences. The southern area gener- ally located east of the airport and west of the Smoky Hill River will prov ide for about half of th i s res i dent i a 1 and res ident i a 1 street acreage. Unfortunately, most of this new development will be reliant upon pump sta- tions for sewage service. Although an expansion of non-gravity flow sewage systems should be discouraged, the proximity of this area to the core of the City justifies its development. The second major residential ~rowth area is to the southeast and east around the old municipal airport (east of the Smoky Hill River). This area will provide the additional acreage necessary to comprise the approximately 1,945 acres of res idences and res ident i al streets ant ic i pated to be needed during the planning period. Most of this proposed development would drain east to East Dry Creek. A single, gravity-flow sewage system could eventually be installed to serve this large area. When such sewage lines are installed, they should be of an adequate size to accommodate not only this immediate development, but also that which might occur further to the east. Although these two growth areas can accommodate the residential develop- ment needs of Salina to the year 2000, additional lands should be considered in case these estimates are surpassed sooner than anticipated. This surplus expansion area is generally along East Dry Creek east of the City. This six to .seven square mile area of developable land is predominantly in one drain- age basin and can be served with a centralized gravity flow sewer system. Within this larger area is a smaller long-range growth district east of the Missouri Pacific Railroad tracks in Section 15. Although this area is not located in the East Dry Creek drainage basin, its proximity to the core of the City suggest it to be a desirable urban development area as well. Again, these more remote lands should not be opened for urban development until the above two areas which are immediately east and south of existing development are substantially occupied. 60 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ,..-",." .:" ,.,': "".'", I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Parks and Recreation As noted in the chapter on existing land use, Salina has an abundance of park acreage. There is, however, only a fair distribution of this parkland. Newly developing areas, for instance, have created a need for smaller neigh- borhood parks. In particular, the eastern residential areas will necessitate two local parks of at least ten acres in size. In addition, the old munici- pal airport is a valuable open-space asset which should be developed to meet many of the more active recreation needs of these eastern residents. As the southern area of the City develops, another larger park should be considered immediately east of the Schilling Industrial Park. This area, which is predominantly floodplain, could also provide active sports facili- ties, such as ballfields, to this southern end of the community. In addi- tion, this area would provide a buffer. between the industrial area to its west and the proposed residential area to its east. Another ar~a in the floodplain, which should be preserved as open space, is the area east of Thomas Park along U.S. Highway 81. Th i s area has very limited development potential, but provides a highly aesthetic gateway into Salina from the north. This park should be maintained in its current wilder- ness state. Finally, a lineal system of bikeways and walkways should be provided throughout the City. Except for the Smoky Hill River Channel Park, these pedestri an and cyc 1 i st corr idors are not shown on the Future Land Use Map, but should be provided along floodplains and major roadways (or along parallel local streets, where possible). They should be designed as continuous links between residential areas, schools, parks, and the downtown and other shopping and employment districts. The City should develop a comprehensive bicycle/pedestrian plan with a detailed implementation program which should be adopted as part of the transportation chapter of this comprehensive plan. Commerc i a 1 The Salina Central Business District should be maintained as the major commerci al area of the community. It should be encouraged to continue to serve the regional shopping, service and governmental needs of Saline County. To accomplish this objective, the downtown should be allowed to expand sl ightly to one-half block east of the railroad tracks on Fourth Street. In addition, vertical expansion should be encouraged through increased use of second-floor space and the redevelopment of underutilized areas of the down- town, such as the north end. It should be emphasized that any redevelopment efforts should be done with careful respect for the current scale and charac- ter of the existing downtown. Further, surrounding residential neighborhoods should be protected from a constantly encroaching downtown. Definitive boun- daries should be established to prevent the blighting effect of commercial expans ion on surroundi ng res ident i a 1 areas. The downtown shoul d not, for instance, expand beyond the line of public and semi-public uses on its western perimeter. A lthough the downtown wi 11 be ma i nta i ned as the bus i ness center of Salina, this district alone cannot provide for all the commercial needs of 61 the community. Other areas will need to be reserved for regional commercial uses. Among these areas are the existing retail districts along East Iron Street, Broadway (north and south), Ninth Street, and East Crawford Street. For the most part, these existing commercial areas are bounded by residential development and should not expand beyond their current limits. In addition to these existing commercial areas containing regional- servi ng uses, new areas are shown to accommodate expans ion needs. These areas are east of the commercial development along Broadway (south of State Street), along Graves Boulevard north of Crawford Street, and the northeast corner of Magnoli a and Ninth Streets. The area along the old path of the Smoky Hill River between Kenwood Park and Ohio Street should be reserved for office or similar light commercial uses which would not detract from sur- rounding residential areas or valuable community facility assets (such as the park and the adjacent Bicentennial Building). The above areas will provide space for most types of commerci al uses. There are two other classes of commercial districts which must be provided for. The first is for highway service uses. These are the businesses which serve the motoring public, such as service stations, fast-food restaurants, and motels. Current highway service locations are numerous, including Highway 40, Broadway Boulevard and Ninth, Crawford and Ohio Streets. These areas should be allowed to continue along with highway service districts around the U.S. Interstate 70 interchange at Ninth Street and immediately south of the Ohio Street interchange. The other type of commercial district is the neighborhood shopping cen- ter. These centers shoul d contain uses wh ich on ly serve the surroundi ng residential populations and which are designed to carefully "fit into" the surrounding neighborhood. These local shopping districts should be no larger than 10 acres in size and should be limited to one corner or side of a street as a coordinated center. The only such new center proposed would be along far-east Crawford Street to serve the residential neighborhood that is anti- cipated to develop there. Industri al Salina is fortunate in being able to provide several ideal industrial sites. Although it is anticipated that about 171 industrial acres will be needed to the year 2000, well over four times that amount is reserved for this use. This excess will assure a competitive industrial land market and provide many alternative sites for the prospective industry. Each of these areas has good rail and highway access, are relatively flat, and are in close proximity to municipal services. SUMMARY As a growing community, Salina can be expected to expand substantially over the next 20 years. Based on current trends, it is estimated that there will be a need to develop an additional 3,000 acres or 4.7 square miles dur- ing this period. Almost two-thirds of this growth will be for residential development and the streets and parks which accompany this land use. In ad- dition, about 220 new commerci al acres are expected to develop as are about 170 acres of industrial uses. 62 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I. II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I The purpose of the future land use plan is to assure that the placement and phasing of this development is accomplished in an efficient and sound manner. This section of the Comprehensive Plan contains planning principles, community policies and a future land use map to guide the City towards such efficient growth. The principles outline the basic components of the neighborhood and the community. It recommends the maintenance of these com- ponents and a reverence for the neighborhood as an essent i a 1 bu il di ng block of a healthy community. The community policies are perhaps the most critical element of the fu- ture land use plan. They should always be referred to for making individual land use decisions. The future land use map is a generalized, long-range land use configur- ation of the community. The purpose of this map is to give an overall perspective of land use relationships. This map is not meant to identify the proper use of each and every parcel or lot in and around the City. Again, individual land use decisions should be based upon the adopted policies as well as the planning principles and existing conditions discussed throughout the Comprehensive Plan. 63 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I APPENDIX I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I APPENDIX LINEAR REGRESSION Y = a + bx a = 5059.47 b = 464.39 x = YEAR (1980=80, 1985=85, etc.) CURVILINEAR REGRESSION Y = a + bx + cx2 a = 22,405.5 b = 4942.05 c = 183.51 x = YEAR (1980=4, 1990=5, 1995=5.5, etc.) COHORT SURVIVAL MIGRATION RATES Male Cohort Female Male Cohort Female -.0215 0- 4 -.0993 .1074 45-49 .0068 .1967 5- 9 .1408 -.0141 50-54 .0389 .0827 10-14 .2585 -.0619 55-59 .1072 .0454 15-19 .1848 .0629 60-64 .0070 -.0554 20-24 .0343 -.0092 65-69 .0485 .0473 25-29 -.1829 .1378 70-74 .0063 -.1630 30-34 -.1272 -.0203 75-79 .1367 -.0790 35-39 -.0619 .2174 80-84 .0462 .1081 40-44 .0844 -.0952 85-Up .0041 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I il I EXPLANATION OF COHORT SURVIVAL PROJECTIONS The cohort surv i val method of popul at ion project i on takes into account all three of the components of population change: births, deaths and migra- tion. It takes its name from the division of the population into five-year age groups called "cohorts". Births, deaths and migration are calculated for each cohort separately to account for differences attributable to age. In addition, each cohort is divided into male and female to respond to differ- ences by sex. Deaths are calculated using five-year survival rates for each sex and age cohort. This rate represents the proportion of any given cohort which is likely to "survive" into the next five-year time. Thus, multiplying a cohort times its survivial rate "ages" that cohort by five years. Obviously, sur- vival rates are much higher for young cohorts than for old ones. Example: 1980 Male Population 15-19 years old = 2014 1985 Male Population 20-24 = 2014 x .990437 = 1995 In thi s case the survi va 1 rate was .990437 and was taken from Popul at ion Estimates and Projections by the Bureau of the Census. The procedure is re- peated for each cohort to arrive at the age and sex specific population five years into the future. The survivors of the last cohort, generally 85 and over, are added to the survivors of the 80 to 84 cohort to form the new 85 and over cohort. The births in each five-year period are used to form a new 0 to 4 cohort. Births are projected using age-specific birth rates for each of the female cohorts between 15 and 44 years of age. Example: 1980 Female Population 20-24 years old = 2103 Annual Birth Rate for Women 20-24 = .1353 Births 1980-85, Women 20-24 = 2103 x .1353 x 5 = 1423 This process is repeated for each female cohort of child-bearing age to ar- rive at total births for a five-year period. The above birth rate was taken from Popul ation Estimates and Projections. Birth rates, of course, are likely to change over time. Unfortunately, these changes are not very predictable. Therefore, the Census Bureau has developed three series 'of projections which make slightly different assumptions about future fertility. Series II is the most probable and assumes the birth rates will continue their recent increase until the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman is reached. Series I projects a somewhat lower birth rate while Series III is somewhat higher. The projection which seems most appropriate given local trends shoul d be used to determi ne future bi rths. The fi nal step of the process is to divide total births into male and female births. This is accomplished by multiplying total births by the percentage of births which are male or female. This percentage is determined by using historical data from the County Health Department. Migration is calculated by determining the difference between historical popul at i on growth and natural popul ati on change (i .e., bi rths and deaths). This difference is assumed to be the result of migration. Using the two most recent Census counts, two five-year periods are created either with existing data or by interpolation. Then each cohort is "aged" as discussed pre- viously; historical birth data is used to create a new 0 to 4 cohort. After it is "aged", each cohort population is compared to the actual population to determine migration. Example: 1975 Male Poulation 30-34 years old = 1210 Expected 1980 Male Population 30-39 = 1210 x .98851 = 1196 Actual 1980 Male Population 35-39 = 1119, Migration = 1119 - 1196 = 77 (out-migration) Migration Rate = -11/1196 = -.06438 The migration rate should be calculated for both five-year periods and then averaged for each cohort. This final migration rate can be used in future project ions by mul t i plyi ng it times the appropri ate cohort to determi ne migration. Example: 1990 Male Population 30-34 = 2500 Expect 1995 Population 35-39 = 2500 x .98941 = 2474 Projected 1995 Population 35-39 = 2474 + (2474 x -.06438) = 2474 -- 159 = 2315 This process is repeated for each cohort. To summarize briefly, the process is as follows: 1. The population is broken into five-year cohorts (male and female); 2. Each cohort is "aged" five years by multiplying it times an age- and sex-specific survival rate; 3. The resulting number is multiplied by the migration rate derived from historical data; 4. Total population for this cohort in the new five-year period is equal to the "survivors" (from Step 2) plus or minus the migration (from Step 3). 5. A new 0 to 4 cohort is created for each five-year period by project- ing the number of births using age-specific birth rates times the number of women in the child-bearing cohorts (15-19 through 40-44). Total population is equal to the sum of all the cohorts. This process can be repeated for as many five-year periods into the future as is desired. I I I I I I I I I I 'I I II I I I I I I